Vision is more important than knowledge, for it was Leonardo da Vinci vision of men flying that lead to the Wright Brothers flying at Kitty Hawk. It is the vision of men to choose their own kings enshrined in the English Magna Carta that lead to democracy and rule of law.
A nation that has a vision can say “we will place a man on the moon in 10 years”, and do it. A nation that has a vision can build an oasis of financial, economic and political stability on a barren rock, no not Dubai, Singapore. It is a nation without vision that wants to return to the “golden ages” by killing all her citizens that can read or write, no not Boko Haram, Cambodia under Pol Pot.
Thus we can say that a nation without vision is a nation that will never be first.
Vision is what saves lives, creates jobs, and builds wealth. That’s why Africa and Nigeria in particular are where we are. No written vision.
Let’s consider what visionary projects has Nigeria done in 49 years, I can count 3, Abuja, the Development of the Lagos Marina and the ongoing dredging of the Niger River. Kalu just hold on, what about the Lagos Ibadan express road? What about the federal universities and the unity schools? National Theatre? The Teaching hospitals? The National stadia? Pally these are all what our leadership is obligated to provide with the oil money we have in Nigeria, we can hardly clap for them. Are there no roads, universities or stadia in Chad republic? Difference is the quantity my brother. By Vision, why didn’t they build a subway in Lagos in the 70’s, why don’t we have a deep water container port in Onitsha? Why haven’t we tapped solar power in Sokoto? Why didn’t we build a mobile network when we built NITEL?
Because men of vision are so rare in Nigeria, when i see one, i sit up.
I have been a great admirer of Tinapa. Tinapa is a vision by the people of Cross River under Donald Duke. Duke became the governor of a state known for pineapples and “apples of the eye”. The state is a marginal oil producing state, with 90% of the citizens rural based? Duke imagined a better state of affairs and put in a plan to transform the state into the tourism and serviced based economic hub of Nigeria. Tinapa is a $450m bet to transform the state into a Dubai.
But sadly Tinapa is not working, do you know why? Kalu the idea was bad to start with; can Nigerians afford the expensive oyibo goods to be sold there? Thing is, Nigeria is a consumer nation, we love to spend on western stuff, Tinapa basic idea is simply to bring the same shops Nigerians travel to in UK, US and Dubai to Calaber. Let the Nigerians fly in (no visa), stay in a hotel, shop, eat, party and fly back to Lagos and Abuja. The state generates huge VAT, creates jobs in hospitality, trade, real-estate and services, the states transform her economy from dependence on “Abuja” money to taxes, that’s vision.
Ok Kalu so it’s a good idea, but has the state delivered? Have they built the structures? Maybe that why it has not worked. Pally, I have been to Tinapa; it is 100% completly built, it’s a beauty. Shops, hotels, film studio, serene near a lake, even the big man, our President YarAdua declared that he would use it as his own “camp David” to host visiting heads of state, now that a presidential endorsement. Akwa Ibom sef has invested $300m in a brand new airport they say is to service cargo transport to Tinapa. (Nice excuse to spend govt money).
Ok so, it’s a good idea, the state has delivered the infrastructure, tenants have moved in, so why has it not worked? Oh a little document called a Procedure and Guidelines (P& G) document, what’s that? Well that the FGN gazetted framework that will guide the operations of Tinapa, without that the chaps in Tinapa cannot import or sell anything as the customs guys will seize it.
So who prepares this P&G stuff? Well the Federal Governments of course, the same Federal Govt that signed agreement with the Cross River state in Oct 2007, the same Federal Government who commissioned the project.
Hang on Kalu, you mean a non oil investment of $450m, was made by Cross river state, probable the largest non-oil investment in Africa, the money was not “chopped”, but a world class shopping, hospitality and entertainment facility was built from scratch, and the site is now wasting because some fart in Abuja cannot sign a damm P & G document? Wait it gets worse
Imitation they say is the best compliment, the Dubai folk seeing the potential harm Tinapa will do to them , have moved swiftly to build a “Tinapa” in Senegal for $800m,they want to make Senegal the hub of their West African business deals. They also want to take over the Ghana Free Trade Zone. The chaps sense that Nigerians will simply stop coming over and they will lose in air travel, Accommodation and shopping expenses of Nigerians. So they are bringing Dubai closer to the market (never mind Dubai is already in Nigeria via Tinapa)
Kalu this is incredible, do you know what I am thinking, just as we hear the generator importers pay NEPA to “off” the power so their generators will sell, could these Dubai guys be paying the fellow in Abuja to sit on the P& G until they build the Senegal and Ghana Free Trade Zones?
Bros, what can we say to these things? If the Federal Government is against you, who can be for you?
It’s our problem, we have to fix it.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Thursday, November 12, 2009
of nature and nurture
In the field of behavioural psychology, the jury is still out on why humans behave the way they do. Is it nature or nurture that causes a man to steal? Better put, if a man is a thief is it because the genes his parents gave him had a “stealing” chromosome or did he just grow up around thieves?
It’s a tough call to make, if you had twins and you put one in the US and the other in the Nigeria, would they behave the same? No, why? well the environment in the US is different than Nigeria, ok we can postulate that both factors; your genes (your family) and your environment plays a role in your behaviour and views on life. I however will have to vote that the environment where you are raised carries a greater percentage share in determining your behaviour.
A psychologist BF Skinner who introduced us to the term “conditioning”. Simply put conditioning is the process where you can be made to behave in a certain way through the application of an external pressure or circumstance or habit, I explain. A Nigerian is conditioned to jump a queue, once a Nigerian see a queue his mind automatically ask” how can I get ahead”, it does not matter if it’s an online queue to get an appointment date for Visa, a fuel line, or a supermarket queue, Nigerians hate queues, we have been conditioned over the years to hate queuing. Well think about it, do “bigmen” queue up?
Children also learn by observation, notice how your baby boy puts your phone to his ear and says “hello”, he can even tell a fake phone from a real phone. What the child, sees can influences his behaviour, that his environment. If he sees the governor doing “one way” with sirens, he will do “one way”, if the senator does not pay his taxes, he won’t pay his taxes also.
So let’s put all what we have together. We know that behaviour is part genes, part environment, we know that the environment can “hot wire” us to respond to situations in a predetermined manner, i.e. conditioning, we also know that we learn by observation.
Ok that done, if I asked you to describe to me how a Nigerian boy, what would you say?
First of all the boy would be illiterate, not innumerate, just illiterate. How do we know? the last NECO scores just released last month shows a general pass rate of just 10.7% (pass rate in some states was 5%). He would be illiterate because his government takes money from the education budget to build roads in Abuja. He would be an illiterate because there are no more teachers, Kalu where the teachers go? The govt is taking some to South Africa, Some are on strike, others are on "Nyger Sings" as judges, a professor make N753,549 a year, D banj make N10m in a week! Do the maths.
He would be aggressive, aggressive? How do you know that? You have to be aggressive to catch the only bus from Iyan Ipaje to Ikoyi by 4am every day, you have to be aggressive to get your baby to see a doctor in a govt run “free” clinic, you have to be aggressive to even cast your vote in a tiny LGA with 10,000 armed police and army men all around. You have to be aggressive to challenge a LASTMA official.
He would be an optimist, optimist? Please explain, only an optimist can hear that the budget for 2009 was only implemented by 25% as at November 09 and still believe the road to his village will be fixed before Christmas. Only an optimist can see Iwu as head of INEC and believe 2011 will be ok, only an optimist can believe we will have 6,000mw by December (there is a thin line between optimism and stupidity you know).
He would be an expert engineer, now I am lost, he is illiterate how can he be an engineer? Have you not seen 1970 Volvo’s still running in Aba? Have you not seen houses powered by truck batteries in Lagos? Have you not seen destroyed tyres “vulcanised” back to life in Kano?
He would probably want to be a kidnapper, senator or a footballer than a doctor, lawyer or engineer. Kalu what’s wrong with being a footballer? Nothing, I wanted to be Spider Man when I was 7. But when all the kids want to be footballers or actors just so they can feed their family, then you have a problem. His role models matters, if he sees a graduate, first class student from University of Ife, driving a state taxi cab, and he see a “exmilitant” earning N65,000.00 a month plus benefits for just chilling, which would he want to be?
He would be a quick learner, yes notice how quickly he learns how to email business letters to oyibos asking for 10% advance, all this without entering an economics or IT class. most telling he would learn that no one would ever call him to “eat” food on the family dinner table, rather his father will cook and take the food to his master bedroom to “eat” alone, it’s up to him to either “steal” food while it’s still on the fire, wait for his dad to finish “eating” and get the scarps or even “kidnap” the dad for a ransom of the food.
Kalu stop. So where does genes come in. My theory is this, under normal circumstance there is no difference between the Nigerian in the 1960’s and the Nigerian in 2009. Both Nigerians were born of the same “father” hence the same genes.
The Nigerians (1960 and 2009 models), was simply exposed to different environments, while the Nigerian in the 60’s saw oyibos giving him, roads, education, honest police and civil servants, he became conditioned to excellence and produced Wole Soyinka, Chike Obi and Ememgwali. He was a healthy, honest, educated, and organised Nigerian.
but the oyibos left and his new “father” gave him NEPA, INEC, Mobile Police, PDP, NNPC he became aggressive, illiterate, unruly, corrupted and angry and produced Iwu, Boy loaf, and Tafa. What a difference a “father” makes.
It’s our problem, we can fix it
It’s a tough call to make, if you had twins and you put one in the US and the other in the Nigeria, would they behave the same? No, why? well the environment in the US is different than Nigeria, ok we can postulate that both factors; your genes (your family) and your environment plays a role in your behaviour and views on life. I however will have to vote that the environment where you are raised carries a greater percentage share in determining your behaviour.
A psychologist BF Skinner who introduced us to the term “conditioning”. Simply put conditioning is the process where you can be made to behave in a certain way through the application of an external pressure or circumstance or habit, I explain. A Nigerian is conditioned to jump a queue, once a Nigerian see a queue his mind automatically ask” how can I get ahead”, it does not matter if it’s an online queue to get an appointment date for Visa, a fuel line, or a supermarket queue, Nigerians hate queues, we have been conditioned over the years to hate queuing. Well think about it, do “bigmen” queue up?
Children also learn by observation, notice how your baby boy puts your phone to his ear and says “hello”, he can even tell a fake phone from a real phone. What the child, sees can influences his behaviour, that his environment. If he sees the governor doing “one way” with sirens, he will do “one way”, if the senator does not pay his taxes, he won’t pay his taxes also.
So let’s put all what we have together. We know that behaviour is part genes, part environment, we know that the environment can “hot wire” us to respond to situations in a predetermined manner, i.e. conditioning, we also know that we learn by observation.
Ok that done, if I asked you to describe to me how a Nigerian boy, what would you say?
First of all the boy would be illiterate, not innumerate, just illiterate. How do we know? the last NECO scores just released last month shows a general pass rate of just 10.7% (pass rate in some states was 5%). He would be illiterate because his government takes money from the education budget to build roads in Abuja. He would be an illiterate because there are no more teachers, Kalu where the teachers go? The govt is taking some to South Africa, Some are on strike, others are on "Nyger Sings" as judges, a professor make N753,549 a year, D banj make N10m in a week! Do the maths.
He would be aggressive, aggressive? How do you know that? You have to be aggressive to catch the only bus from Iyan Ipaje to Ikoyi by 4am every day, you have to be aggressive to get your baby to see a doctor in a govt run “free” clinic, you have to be aggressive to even cast your vote in a tiny LGA with 10,000 armed police and army men all around. You have to be aggressive to challenge a LASTMA official.
He would be an optimist, optimist? Please explain, only an optimist can hear that the budget for 2009 was only implemented by 25% as at November 09 and still believe the road to his village will be fixed before Christmas. Only an optimist can see Iwu as head of INEC and believe 2011 will be ok, only an optimist can believe we will have 6,000mw by December (there is a thin line between optimism and stupidity you know).
He would be an expert engineer, now I am lost, he is illiterate how can he be an engineer? Have you not seen 1970 Volvo’s still running in Aba? Have you not seen houses powered by truck batteries in Lagos? Have you not seen destroyed tyres “vulcanised” back to life in Kano?
He would probably want to be a kidnapper, senator or a footballer than a doctor, lawyer or engineer. Kalu what’s wrong with being a footballer? Nothing, I wanted to be Spider Man when I was 7. But when all the kids want to be footballers or actors just so they can feed their family, then you have a problem. His role models matters, if he sees a graduate, first class student from University of Ife, driving a state taxi cab, and he see a “exmilitant” earning N65,000.00 a month plus benefits for just chilling, which would he want to be?
He would be a quick learner, yes notice how quickly he learns how to email business letters to oyibos asking for 10% advance, all this without entering an economics or IT class. most telling he would learn that no one would ever call him to “eat” food on the family dinner table, rather his father will cook and take the food to his master bedroom to “eat” alone, it’s up to him to either “steal” food while it’s still on the fire, wait for his dad to finish “eating” and get the scarps or even “kidnap” the dad for a ransom of the food.
Kalu stop. So where does genes come in. My theory is this, under normal circumstance there is no difference between the Nigerian in the 1960’s and the Nigerian in 2009. Both Nigerians were born of the same “father” hence the same genes.
The Nigerians (1960 and 2009 models), was simply exposed to different environments, while the Nigerian in the 60’s saw oyibos giving him, roads, education, honest police and civil servants, he became conditioned to excellence and produced Wole Soyinka, Chike Obi and Ememgwali. He was a healthy, honest, educated, and organised Nigerian.
but the oyibos left and his new “father” gave him NEPA, INEC, Mobile Police, PDP, NNPC he became aggressive, illiterate, unruly, corrupted and angry and produced Iwu, Boy loaf, and Tafa. What a difference a “father” makes.
It’s our problem, we can fix it
Sunday, October 18, 2009
of wags and waziri
“Wag the dog” is a term used to describe a situation where the tail is wagging the dog or purposely diverting attention from a bigger event to a smaller event in order to refocus the public attention, so that the smaller event assumes a greater role than the bigger event. Like a doctor treating an AIDS patient for headache not the AIDS, thus the Headache gets more attention than the AIDS.
“Wagging the dog” is done all the time, we do it, you promise your son a gift if he comes first in his maths class, he comes first, you forget the gift and when your son asks you immediately fire back that he has not had his bath. Your wife tells you to buy diapers for the baby, you buy beer forget the diapers and when she asks you remind her that your own mother did not use diapers, you get pulled over for driving one way by LASTMA, you immediately challenge them “do you know who I am”? “Why are you calling me Mr”? Don’t you know I am a “Chief”?
But the most adept at playing this game (“yes it’s a game”) are public officials, The ability to play this game is key to your progress through the corridors of power, Examples abound, like you ask the minster of power why there is no power and he says its militants, to take your attention away from the fact that almost $20b has been spent, for 10 years and we are still at less than 3,000MW. you have to be able to say “bitumen” to charges of not repairing Lagos roads and “water goddess” to charges of ocean surges at the bar beach (true, a Lagos state governor said the cause of the ocean surge was that when the ocean goddess see’s her reflection on Fin Bank building, she sends waves to attack the “imposter”. Another governor came and built a wave breaker, same environment, different response).
Ok but for my money (no pun intended) the biggest “wag the dog” is the CBN war on private jets. The EFCC has been in a coma after Ribadu left, yep we have had lots of arrests but curiously no convictions, we have instead had plea bargains, a lot of plea bargains. We have heard of numerous international scandals involving Nigerian public officials, we have the Halliburton saga, the Siemens shocker, we have the N300million Min of Health affair, the N5B Rural Electrification case, the $16bn NIPP power scandals. All these scandals but the EFCC has mobilised the Chairman, 80 operatives and has moved to Lagos to collect bank debts.
“Madam” has given more interviews, more resources more time on these banking crises than any another scandal. Madam even travelled to the IMF conference in Turkey, yes the IMF conference to explain why her commission was collecting bank debts, debt collections is now an “achievement”.
The press has played along, Nigerians no longer talk about ASUU, it’s better to talk about 2 new jets ordered by an ex-bank chief, we don’t talk about electoral reform, it’s better to talk about bonus paid to ex bankers, we don’t realise that there is a Cholera, yes Cholera outbreak in Bornu state its better too argue about what a nonperforming loan is, the National Assembly nko? They too not wanting to be left out of the “loop” last week they actually debated if females should be allowed to work in banks as marketers, in the 21 century Nigeria this is what our lawmakers are debating! but again every time spent on this insane debate is another day not spent on constitutional review or land use reform.
Let’s ask a serious question what is the contribution of the entire financial institutions (banks, insurance, mortgage & stock broking) to our GDP from 1998 to2008? Answer its only 3.93%, Agriculture meanwhile is 41.53%, ok what about the % contribution to GDP growth well for financial institutions its just 1.79%, Agriculture is 45.86%.
No Kalu I don’t believe your figures, how can you say First Bank, Zenith, IGI, Stanbic IBTC and Co only have a 3% share of our GDP? Where are you getting your figures from?
Well consider this, is there is bank in your village? Ok is there a farm in your village? How many people do you know that can walk into a bank a get a loan of N50,000? ok how many people do you know can walk into a village and start planting yams.Banks are huge business but because they are so small when compared to the general wealth and activity of Nigeria their impact is insignificant. So by implications the FGN, the press, the Parliament, EFCC, even we have focused on 3.93% of the economy while 41% languished in non attention. “Wag the dog”?
N200billion for Agriculture to feed 150million, N420million to feed 5 banks “wag the dog”?
Hang on Kalu, even if your figures are correct the US passed Tarp $700b, Obama has jumped into bonus paid to bankers, the whole press in the US focused on AIG, banks have been discussed in the Congress, Michael Moore even has a new film on evils of Capitalism, yep, but the US banking sector short term liabilities alone is 15% of US GDP and 43% of the entire National Debt, Consumer spending is 78% of the GDP of America, almost all the shoppers use Credit cards, debit cards, Bank cards etc, would you allow 78% or 42% of your economy freeze? Ooh Agriculture is 0.9% of the US economy
The EFCC circus with the bank debtors, the public trial on the pages of the papers is a stimulus package to the newspapers and the TV news, and a distraction. It has made all Nigerian experts in risk management (everybody now knows what non-performing loan is) it has enabled Sanusi live out his sheriff desire but at what cost?
Bank lending to the private sector is down, Nigerian letters of credit are not worth the paper they are faxed on, Nigerian banks, (all of them the cleared and uncleared), are now viewed with grave suspicion, the stock market has tanked, consumer credit is over,$2b to be spent on “stimulus” and heck unemployment will rise. Was the crises caused by the banks or is the bank crises an effect of falling oil price? Where would Nigerian economy be of we still had 84 moi moi banks when this crises hit? But i digress.
Ok Kalu but are you saying because its 3% of GDP is not important its not important? Isn’t N420b real money? Oh no! Far from it, i am mealy asking that we don’t only “eat the bankers” lets ensure the “efficiency” of the EFCC spreads around, surly this is a democracy.
The real wag the dog, the villains are the bank CEO’s not the guys mentioned in Siemens, Halliburton, and NIPP etc.
It’s our problem, we will fix it
“Wagging the dog” is done all the time, we do it, you promise your son a gift if he comes first in his maths class, he comes first, you forget the gift and when your son asks you immediately fire back that he has not had his bath. Your wife tells you to buy diapers for the baby, you buy beer forget the diapers and when she asks you remind her that your own mother did not use diapers, you get pulled over for driving one way by LASTMA, you immediately challenge them “do you know who I am”? “Why are you calling me Mr”? Don’t you know I am a “Chief”?
But the most adept at playing this game (“yes it’s a game”) are public officials, The ability to play this game is key to your progress through the corridors of power, Examples abound, like you ask the minster of power why there is no power and he says its militants, to take your attention away from the fact that almost $20b has been spent, for 10 years and we are still at less than 3,000MW. you have to be able to say “bitumen” to charges of not repairing Lagos roads and “water goddess” to charges of ocean surges at the bar beach (true, a Lagos state governor said the cause of the ocean surge was that when the ocean goddess see’s her reflection on Fin Bank building, she sends waves to attack the “imposter”. Another governor came and built a wave breaker, same environment, different response).
Ok but for my money (no pun intended) the biggest “wag the dog” is the CBN war on private jets. The EFCC has been in a coma after Ribadu left, yep we have had lots of arrests but curiously no convictions, we have instead had plea bargains, a lot of plea bargains. We have heard of numerous international scandals involving Nigerian public officials, we have the Halliburton saga, the Siemens shocker, we have the N300million Min of Health affair, the N5B Rural Electrification case, the $16bn NIPP power scandals. All these scandals but the EFCC has mobilised the Chairman, 80 operatives and has moved to Lagos to collect bank debts.
“Madam” has given more interviews, more resources more time on these banking crises than any another scandal. Madam even travelled to the IMF conference in Turkey, yes the IMF conference to explain why her commission was collecting bank debts, debt collections is now an “achievement”.
The press has played along, Nigerians no longer talk about ASUU, it’s better to talk about 2 new jets ordered by an ex-bank chief, we don’t talk about electoral reform, it’s better to talk about bonus paid to ex bankers, we don’t realise that there is a Cholera, yes Cholera outbreak in Bornu state its better too argue about what a nonperforming loan is, the National Assembly nko? They too not wanting to be left out of the “loop” last week they actually debated if females should be allowed to work in banks as marketers, in the 21 century Nigeria this is what our lawmakers are debating! but again every time spent on this insane debate is another day not spent on constitutional review or land use reform.
Let’s ask a serious question what is the contribution of the entire financial institutions (banks, insurance, mortgage & stock broking) to our GDP from 1998 to2008? Answer its only 3.93%, Agriculture meanwhile is 41.53%, ok what about the % contribution to GDP growth well for financial institutions its just 1.79%, Agriculture is 45.86%.
No Kalu I don’t believe your figures, how can you say First Bank, Zenith, IGI, Stanbic IBTC and Co only have a 3% share of our GDP? Where are you getting your figures from?
Well consider this, is there is bank in your village? Ok is there a farm in your village? How many people do you know that can walk into a bank a get a loan of N50,000? ok how many people do you know can walk into a village and start planting yams.Banks are huge business but because they are so small when compared to the general wealth and activity of Nigeria their impact is insignificant. So by implications the FGN, the press, the Parliament, EFCC, even we have focused on 3.93% of the economy while 41% languished in non attention. “Wag the dog”?
N200billion for Agriculture to feed 150million, N420million to feed 5 banks “wag the dog”?
Hang on Kalu, even if your figures are correct the US passed Tarp $700b, Obama has jumped into bonus paid to bankers, the whole press in the US focused on AIG, banks have been discussed in the Congress, Michael Moore even has a new film on evils of Capitalism, yep, but the US banking sector short term liabilities alone is 15% of US GDP and 43% of the entire National Debt, Consumer spending is 78% of the GDP of America, almost all the shoppers use Credit cards, debit cards, Bank cards etc, would you allow 78% or 42% of your economy freeze? Ooh Agriculture is 0.9% of the US economy
The EFCC circus with the bank debtors, the public trial on the pages of the papers is a stimulus package to the newspapers and the TV news, and a distraction. It has made all Nigerian experts in risk management (everybody now knows what non-performing loan is) it has enabled Sanusi live out his sheriff desire but at what cost?
Bank lending to the private sector is down, Nigerian letters of credit are not worth the paper they are faxed on, Nigerian banks, (all of them the cleared and uncleared), are now viewed with grave suspicion, the stock market has tanked, consumer credit is over,$2b to be spent on “stimulus” and heck unemployment will rise. Was the crises caused by the banks or is the bank crises an effect of falling oil price? Where would Nigerian economy be of we still had 84 moi moi banks when this crises hit? But i digress.
Ok Kalu but are you saying because its 3% of GDP is not important its not important? Isn’t N420b real money? Oh no! Far from it, i am mealy asking that we don’t only “eat the bankers” lets ensure the “efficiency” of the EFCC spreads around, surly this is a democracy.
The real wag the dog, the villains are the bank CEO’s not the guys mentioned in Siemens, Halliburton, and NIPP etc.
It’s our problem, we will fix it
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