Friday, March 27, 2009

of Sokoto and Neveda

Yesterday, the Federal govt released N303billion plus for the National Integrated Power Project. This is just 40% of the $5.3bilion approved for NIPP projects. This money is expected to enable Nigeria reach 6,000 megawatts by December 2009.

but take quick took at the article below. Al Gore says -and it has been fact checked as correct- that an area the size of 10,000 square feet, can produce enough solar power to feed America for a year, America uses 3,900 BILLION kilowatt hours of electricity a year. I have questions,

1. How big is Sokoto state? (Nigeria is 356,376 square miles), why cant we put these thermal plants in the deserts of Sokoto?

2. Why are all the projects executed by the NIPP tied to Gas? Gas can and had been shut down by the MEND boys. Why put all our power eggs in one basket?

3. Why can’t we include solar into the mix? This way the northern states can mine solar power and send to Lagos.

These are simple questions i would like answers to. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see the benefits of this which include;

1. employment in the North, reversing the CBN poverty projections
2. power for Lagos manufacturing concerns, this brings down the cost of doing business, increases employment, and saves the environment.
3. jobs, jobs, jobs.

I really would like to know why we are not exploring this option of solar, coal, wind, i really want to know.

Anyone with answers?

Kalu Aja

ऑफ़ स्पेंडिंग एंड सेनातोर्स

“ a great famine caused by a credit crunch fell upon the land. The great prophets Mark and Bankole were sent by the PDP to the village of CBN, where they saw Umaru with his son Charles collecting taxes. Umaru, we pray thee, they said, give us the foreign reserves to spend. Umuru replied surly as the Lord lives all I have in my Foreign account is just $48billion, I am preparing a belt-tightening budget, to focus on education, health and infrastructure spending, so that can last us through this recession, if my reserves finish then me and my son will simply die. Not so, said the prophets, give us first the $48 billion “to eat”. Umaru obeyed the voice of the prophets and gave the $48 billion away, and they “did eat” , and then they all sat round a fire and died of hunger together. IMF be praised”.


Nigeria has proposed a deficit budget of N836.6 billion! Now this means we are going to spend N836.6 billion more than we have.

Note that we import everything in Nigeria, so To finance deficit we proposed amongst others to raise $500m bond offering, (that has now being abandoned) so no borrowing. So its either we spend our foreign reserves, print dollars or cut back on spending. LOL, cut back on what? Nigeria to stop spending? That’s like a crack addict cutting back on crack, Nigeria is addicted to spending. We can’t print dollars, so to finance the deficit we are going to spend out of the foreign reserves. fact.

So I say why wait, lets spend the whole money now. Spend it all while we can! I propose a stimulus package of $48 billion for just three companies, Julius Berger JB, HFP and Mikano Generators. I am proposing that the government give $48 billion which is the value of our foreign reserves to these three companies. their mission is simple;

1. For Julius Berger, build as much roads as they can in all the towns, cities and trade routes in the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria.
2. For HFP, build housing units in Lagos and Abuja. These guys have built 6,000 houses already. How many has Ministry of Works built?
3. For Mikano, (f#$k the NIPP), they are to import generators and supply to all streets in Lagos. If Lagos state can go off the national grid maybe, Enugu and Sokoto can get power. Maybe ooh!
Kalu are you serious? If we spend all our money on Generators and Bitumen, what will we have left? Ok we agree are “money miss road” but then your stimulus plan is irresponsible and more of the same it’s just more spending! Haba!

Yes it is. But lets spend well, lets spend on things we can see, that can last, things that can maybe restart our economy that has not recovered since the 70’s. if we don’t spend it now it will be given to the Houses of Reps and the Senators to pay for Uniforms costing N137 million and Meals and Refreshment costing N3.8 billion.

Kalu you are not serious, meals costing N3.8 billion? In this economic crises? that’s untrue, show us proof. Its right there in the 2009 proposed budget, in black and white. Meals for senators N783,000,000.00, meals for House of Reps N3,113,100,000.00 (classification numbers 021010002501001 and 021005002501001).

If JB was to build roads in all the six geopolitical zones do you know how many jobs will be created? Do you know what we will save on hospital bills on road accidents caused by bad roads? Do you know how much food costs will fall as farmers can get their good to the market? If HFP was to build 10,000 units of 2 bedroom flats, do you realize the amount of disposable income that will be released by the growing middle class to spend on other stuff apart from 2 years rent upfront?
If Mikano was to give every street in Lagos alone a generator, at least Barbers and welders will have work, 60% load will be taken off the national grid and the rest of Nigeria can enjoy PHCN’s 3,000 MW. Without power, there is no life, ask God; the first Ministry God created was Power ministry. PHCN is the devils copy.
Ok, ok but if everyone has a generator, what about diesel? Who will import it? , who imports the fuel in your car? Is it just one man? Ok but what about noise and pollution, now nko? Is there no noise and pollution? Since the central Generator has failed and the 7 Point agenda is still in the pipeline, let’s do this and see.

Point is if we leave this $48 billon, it will be gone in 2 years, shared out to the Governors and Houses of Parliament, it will not get to education (if it did, teachers will be on strike), it will not get to health (if it did Lassa fever and Meningitis will not be ravaging Nigeria), it will not get to Security (if it did then Oyinbos would not run to Lagos for safety) the money will disappear into N400m houses, N200m executive pensions and N35million constituency projects. FACT

When we had the first boom in the 70’s, we had congested ports also, as we imported everything, but Gen Gowan managed to build the Lagos flyovers and many a road. Can you imagine Lagos without those flyovers? This time we have had an Oil boom, congested ports but instead of roads we have a seven point agenda.
We sat down and the oil boom came and we did not participate (thanks to MEND), now we are going to watch the great disappearing foreign exchange trick, the President has raised the approval limit on how much contractors can be paid, CBN has removed the CBN figures from its website, so if it gets to $1 billion, we will only know when the sugar and milk lines reappear just like the austerity measurers that brought the “essential commodities” .

I’m too sad to vex, but it’s our problem; it’s not too late to fix it.

Kalu
disclaimer
Kalu does not own shares in JB, Mikano and HFP, but wishes he did. Consult your adviser for all investment transactions or you will be sorry. Shares have a nasty habit of going down in price.
I am moving to Aba.
Kalu are u serious? You want to leave the Mega City, the land of Aquatic splendor, the centre of excellence in Nigeria to go to the dirtiest city in Nigeria?

Ok, if I offered you a choice to either live in New York City or Lagos Mega City? Which would you take? I would not dignify that question with a reply, Kalu take time ooh.

Ok let’s take away power from New York (Light to my Nigerian readers) where would you move to the big apple or the big yam? Hmmmm

Let me put this in perspective
Without power the traffic Lights and subways in the big apple wont work, so the traffic will be worse than Lagos, the big yam. Why? More cars in NY.
Without power the Emergency Rooms and hospitals wont work, or can you operate a MRI scanner or diabetes machine on batteries? For a week?
Without power no TV, refrigerators, microwaves, no PC, no IPod, No Cable, No Wal Mart, No Baseball, etc,
Without power, there will no heat in public schools so education becomes more expensive,
without power there will be no street lights, no Times square, so tourism drops, employment drops, crime rises again,
without Power the 911, and other emergency lines don’t work so no Fire, Ambulance or Cops,
without power no lifts will work, so all those skyscrapers in Manhattan become useless, wall street shuts down, people get sacked, unemployment , crime rises,
without power JFK shuts down, so no international airport in New York,
without power industries cant produce jack, no Starbucks, no Laundromats, so more people get laid off ,
without power…..Kalu we get the point.

Without Power, the big apple becomes the big yam, no street lights, crime on the streets, no public education or health, monster traffic jams. Plus you still pay taxes and freeze in the big apple. Hmmmm
So why Aba? Why not Abuja? Because in three months Aba will commission their very own 188 mw Independent Power Project, the Aba IPP built by Geometric Power at a cost of just $385 million with funding from the International Finance Corporation, the European Investment Bank, Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund, Stanbic and Diamond Bank.
Kalu, you were making small sense b4 ooh, so? Do you know how many power plants are in Nigeria? Is there power? Well take a look at the sponsors or fund providers again, do you see any FGN? No, So? This is a private sector driven initiate to provide power, power contracts will be signed with the consumers, you can sue and be sued, and they are working for profit not salary. Again Kalu Lagos, the Mega city had their own IPP, built by Enron, there are still blackout in Lagos, so what the difference? How can they separate NEPA/PHCN from ABA IPP?

That is the beauty of the ABA IPP, the promoters went to Obasanjo and said Sir, we want to build this plant, we don’t want your money, but can you give us Aba as an exclusive territory to supply power to at a commercial price. OBJ agreed. It's this clause that will make this IPP a success. Aba will be an island supplied exclusively by the Aba IPP. Bola Tinubu had foresight, he brought the Enron power barges, and after strong resistance from the FGN he was finally allowed to generate power and sell to the National grid to supply Lagos. The plan was to channel to power back to Lagos, it didn’t happen, NEPA/PHCN/OBJ (the same mama born dem) simply put the Lagos/Enron/IPP into the national grid, and it as-you-were in Lagos in terms of power supply.
So won’t this new power station be expensive? Can ordinary people afford it? Right now ordinary Nigerians are spending N40-60 to generate 1 Kilowatt* Diesel is N75 per liter (if you can find it) the second richest Nigerian, a $ Billionaire on Forbes list, got these by selling Diesel, that tells a lot. (I’m not mad at him, he is an entrepreneur. That will be like blaming pure water sellers for spreading Typhoid, where is Water Works?)

Ask any Nigerian if will pay double to get power even for 12 hours a day, what do you think his answer will be? ask any manufacture or bank manager to pay triple his current NEPA/PHCN bill and get power from just 8am-5pm, what do you think his answer will be? In Nigeria we pay NEPA/PHCN bills and get no power, every body has a generator, from the 1 KVA “I better pass my neighbor” to massive CAT generator. you can’t walk the streets and make a call, diesel fumes, and noise. Every Nigeria child first learned word is NEPA, no kidding, they see their parents say “ NEPA” and look angry.
So Kalu you are saying the reason why ABA IPP/Geometric will succeed with this power IPP and Lagos and the Federal govt have failed is not the money- $16billion, the market -140m Nigerians, the will or desire, but the fact that the private sector, has simply been allowed to sell power without interference from NEPA/PHCH/FGN? Yes.

If you were GE, and you came to Nigeria to solve the power problem, the solution is easy. build a power plant in every local govt in Lagos, take Lagos off the national power grid, since Lagos consumes 60% of the power generated, that means more power can go to the other states, it’s a no brainer. So Kalu why don’t they just do that? Because the Federal Government controls the price you can sell power to the national grid. They say if they allowed consumers buy power from GE direct, GE will over charge consumers, so they are “protecting” consumers by fixing the price GE can sell power. But Kalu that ridiculous, we still buy Diesel at N75 even though oil prices have fallen, why are they not "protecting” us? Well na you talk am.
Point is, government has no business in business, and power is big, very big business. If you open the market to all comers, then you will see people saying ok, I will sell power to Lekki alone, ok we will target Badagry, etc you will solve this problem, simply focus on Lagos. It’s the political will to simply open up the market.

Let me give you an example with mobile phones in Nigeria. No matter the model and features of any phone in Nigeria, the price starts high (because demand is high) and as supply meets demand it falls. Everybody is allowed to jump on a plane, go to Dubai and import any phone he likes, they is no monopoly on phone importation, so the prices rises and falls with demand, consumers are happy, jobs are created, MTN and Co are happy, govt makes money from calls. However, if there was a Ministry of Mobile Phones, the Minister will simply publish a list of “approved” phone coy, and start “selling” mobile phone import licenses. There will then be another parastatal called Department of Mobile Phones who will “test” your phones to ensure they comply with international standards , for a fee of course, so your phone price is not determined by market forces but by ineffective govt policies. It this not why Petrol and Diesel are expensive in Nigeria?
Kalu again I ask why can they just open up the markets? why can’t they allow anyone import diesel, bring in power etc? Well don’t tell anyone I told you, this is just between me and you. If they sold NEPA and NNPC, how will they fund PDP?

Still our problem, we can solve it, Vexing isn’t working, I need another strategy……..suggestions?

Kalu

Ps the power probe committee report has been handed to a “committee” to review. hmmm ever heard of death by committee?

of ATMs

The president called the bluff of the LOC of the 2009 FIFA U-17 world cup last week and saved Nigeria N26.5B; yep thats Billion.

One week ago the FIFA U-17 Nigeria LOC like the “chop and clean mouth” KOJA, presented a bill of N35.5b to host the FIFA U-17 world cup in Nigeria in 2009. Hmm the president then told them, he did not have the cash with him right now, but that they should come back "tomorrow". And magically the figure dropped by 228% to N9billion. The president has now oked the event. See an advantage of going slow.

So the obvious question is what did they slash? Did they slash new stadia or did they slash their commission? To put this in perspective, this amount to host a junior world cup Nigeria has won three times is more than the budgeted amount for either health or education in the 2009 budget. So in essence, we are putting football over educating our kids and keeping the populace health. Tells you where our priorities are. I had expressed the fear ago that this tournament was going to be another ATM scheme; thankfully Yar Adua has changed his “PIN” number.

But why stop there, let Yar Adua call the bluff of the legislators who have withheld ascent on the 2008, yes 2008 supplementary budget of N683 Billion. Can someone explain to me how we are discussing 2008 budget in November 2008?

This country is now a big ATM. This week we heard the Minster of Agriculture and Water resources tell us that N24 bllion was spent on boreholes between 2004 and 2006, the problem however is that the boreholes are untraceable ie they don’t exist.
Today we have just heard that the 2009 budget is for N2.68 trillion, that’s trillion, the same ministry of Agriculture and Water resources is allocated N80.9B, health and education combined get N58 Billion. If you add Universal Basis Education, the combined figure is N98B.

Another interesting allocation is the Niger Development Development Commission with N34.9B while the Federal Capital territory gets N30.6 billion. So an agency managing the entire oil producing areas (seven states) gets N34B, and one state or territory gets N30B. hmmm one hope then that the excess sum that will be spent on the development of the Niger Delta will be allocated in the mint new Niger Delta Ministry.

The oil price benchmark is fixed at $45. In my view this leaves very narrow wriggle room for saving of any excess crude, ie if oil drops to $50 (which is a possibility) we can only save $15 per barrel to put in any excess crude account. I digress, Point is this is a time for belt tightening; we cannot be involved in disappearing boreholes or Peugeot 407 car scandals in 2009.

The govt must show the way in honesty, prudence and when that fails Yaradua should simply seize the jokers ATM cards.

It’s our problem, we can fix it

Kalu Aja

Ps how did the minister of works escape the cabinet shake up? Has anyone seen our roads?
Some times you hear a news story and you say Kai! It’s impossible, this could not have happened, in this Nigeria? its impossible, show me proof.

Let me tell you one of these stories in the late 70’s when Joseph Wayas ran the Parliament a motion was introduced that Big stout (Guinness or Odeku) should be served with pepper soup during House proceedings. This motion was actually voted on and defeated soundly, but that a senator actually introduced such a Bill tells you how low Nigeria fell during these times, do you believe this story? I assure you it’s true.

Ok let me tell you another incredible story, in 2006 the President of Nigeria Olusegun Obasanjo wanted to have a Nigerian version of the “Great Leap Forward” so he decided to launch a satellite into space with Chinese help (sounds like the Emperors new clothes already). well this project in spite of the hue and cry was eventually launched (so they told us) at a cost of N40 billion Naira, yes Billion. ($333 million). However the satellite first lost power (they first told us) then was parked in space (they told us after) and eventually it has fallen and is lost irreparably (so they are now telling us).

Now the interesting part, the MD of the NigerComm SAT1, Professor Ahmed Rufai has now asked the House to approve N59 Billion ($500m) concessionary loan from the China EXIM bank, yes Billion and yes China, to launch another satellite, do you believe this story? I assure you its true.

Where do I start from?
1. How are we sure a satellite was actually launched by the Chinese? All we saw was a rocket blasting off from China, did due process take a picture of the satellite in space?.
2. What were the specs given to the Chinese, did we order a dud, or did the Chinese build a dud? Was the nation sold a dud?
3. Why China? Can anyone here tell me any thing that China invented after paper and fireworks? Could it be that we were looking for a backing for a third term from a Security Council member when the West rejected the Third term project? But I digress
4. What did we actually gain form the satellite? Were internet call cheaper? Was any income realized? Why could it not find the missing aircraft that crashed near Obudu? why cant it spy on militants positions in the creeks?
5. If the Chinese failed, why give them another chance? If they could not deliver a working N40billion satellite, should we trust them with a N59 billion satellite? How came they are giving us a “loan” to build another satellite, will we pay interest on this second satellite, or is someone looking to donate to a secretariat project?
6. What about insurance? was this satellite insured? If yes why is the MD Rufai asking for money from the House to build a new one? was there no warranty or guaranty?
I can go on and on but really is it just me? do I think someone here is just plain stupid? Is the House going to actually vote on this?

I bet you in 50 years, you will tell your grandson about this incident, he wont believe you, he will say “haba granddaddy be serious now, how can you say they gave someone N40billion, and he “lost” it and then came back for N59 billion!”
When you hear these word maybe you will realize that it’s actually “us” that were stupid.

Fee dee fee, Power

Kalu
The news in Nigeria is that junior police officers are preparing to go on strike, yep they will down tools or guns or stop collecting “N20” to express their many grievances.
This instantly posses many questions, can they do this? Legally no, they are an essential service so they cannot go on strike, just like the Army, PHCH (NEPA is on strike) etc, but they can and have actually gone on strike before. I recall in 2003 I believe, the junior officers also then went on a strike. The IG and the senior police officers threaten fire and brimstone on any junior officer found “on strike” but that day by 5pm it was eerily quite in Lagos, there was no traffic jam, everybody ran home to be safe. You see no body wanted to take any chances. At that time I discovered that a “N20” police is better than a “N10” armed robber.

Ok what are the police grievances? The usual, lack of promotions, delayed promotions, very bad working conditions etc, do they have a point? Are u kidding? Been to a police barracks lately? The Nigerian Police is a sorry institution, it’s sorry because of no fault of their making, they have been made sorry.
Again I ask have you been a police barracks. There has to be a realty show called “how long you can eat and not throw up in a Nigerian police barracks”. It is awful. Open sewers, blackened walls, no running water, etc, and these are the guys we send out to guard mansions in Asokoro and lkoyi? Whose fault? Was money approved for the repair of these barracks? yes money is always approved, in the 2009 budget, Police has the second highest allocation after Education; about N183 billion plus. So how much will it cost to renovate a barrack? The worst thing is that it’s a privilege to even have a space in these places, God forbid you get yourself killed by armed robbers or worse run over by a mad Honda driving woman, your family will be thrown out of there in a flash. And we wonder why they disappear when the armed robbers show up?

FACT we hear of officers nabbed by taskforce X for collecting “N20” but the former IG was caught red-handed with billions, what happened to him? Is the case still in court? What was the pleas bargain details? Did he refund anything to the state?

FACT Police trainees in the training schools are made to buy their own shoes and equipment, theses are trainees ooh, and there is a federal budget for training, so are you surprised they ask for “N20”. what are they trained on? can they use a computer? can they shoot straight, can they perform emergency first aid? can they defend themselves without a gun?

FACT the average junior police earns about N35,000.00 a month. Before they got this, their average salary a month was about N10,000.00. Then a police man did not actually know his salary, he was not paid through a bank, nor did he get a pay slip, there is usually a “pay parade” and he lines up and is given his salary in cash. If he was recruited in Sokoto, his pay point will be in Sokoto forever, if he is transferred to Lagos on assignment or posting his salary will still be made in Sokoto. So the poor guy in Lagos has to make do with “N20”. Things are now getting better; they now have a pay slip because of pension reform. And we wonder why they are so corrupt.

FACT the IG has reportedly requested for N2.9trillion to revamp the police force, peanuts! We also read the president, vice president, governors, ministers and their aides earn N1.3 trillion a year! So since 1999 we have spend N10trilion (or more) on salaries and perks for the less than 5,000 people, there are 366,000 police officers, do the maths.
FACT The Police have no fingerprint, Forensics DNA lab in the whole of Nigeria, to solve cases they torture. Wonder why Bola Ige (serving Minister of Justice) Alfred Rewane, Harry Marshall, Funsho Williams’s cases have not been solved.
Guys I can go on and on, point is we are getting what we are allowing. Would it be a stretch to employ only graduates as police officers, to pay a minimum of N100,000.00 as monthly salary, with full life insurance, mortgage and car loans, also add free child education in the event of death. How much would that cost us as a nation? Well less than N10 trillion over 10 years. Can you drive your new Toyota Prado if there was no policeman, can you open a shop in Oshodi if there was no police man? There cannot be security unless every street has a cop simply walking and watching.

usually the police motto is “protect & Serve” in Nigeria the motto is “to Protect (all and only the banks, oil companies, politicians, and big men and women) and Serve (only Aso rock). All the mobile police men are now used as personal bodyguards, so who will investigate petty crime in Mushin? who will control traffic in Kano City? Who will protect referee during football games in Aba?
Please guys lets show our cops some respect, it’s not their fault they look ragged and demand “N20” from you at gunpoint. Will we have found it funny if a lady bobby or NYPD officer was run over by a mad lady in a Honda? Take a Nigerian police man out of Nigeria and they excel, the UN always looks for our cops. Even in Nigeria have you seen cops in Calaber? They are smart looking, the even wear gloves! Because Duke looked after them. if there is a police post near your house , this weekend buy juice, or even water and gala and give them, they will appreciate it.

The politicians keep the police men in penury so they can use them to settle scores, abi will you tell a police man who earns N150,000.00 a month, has a wife and 3 kids in university, with a neat apartment in Ikeja to carry a stuffed ballot box during elections? He will simply arrest you. The democracy we crave starts from having someone to enforce it, the Police the Judiciary workers, God bless them, they are doing their best.

Its our problem, we can solve it.

Kalu Aja