Queen Turei the Magnificent walked into her presidential library in Tureina. It had been a short drive from the state house where she had just presided over the weekly Executive meeting of the Kingdom of Negeria.
She took a glance at the cashew trees; she recalled planting them 20 years ago, when Negeria was still a republic, it made her smile, but it also stiffened her, it made her remember her motto in life, keep pushing until something happens. KPUSH. That motto has made her the richest and most powerful women in Africa, Queen Turei preferred to be called the richest woman in the World but her handlers knew that one of her daughters who had been the minister of petroleum for 20years and had carved out a state for herself out of Bachi was far richer, but they kept mum.
Queen Turei had always pushed, when she saw her brother in law and father in law enter politics she pushed Maru to get into politics, she silly man wanted to become a chemistry lecturer she chuckled. When unfortunately her Brother in law died in jail, she pushed Maru to take up the family mantle to govern Tureina. Maru absence for medical reasons had enabled her to enter into the world of Negeria governance, and she discovered a dark secret about men. They would do anything for money. Money was important to her, but that someone was willing to forgo future wealth for immediate cash was a lesson she attached t her KPUSH mantra.
She had planned to teach the manta to her sons for them to apply, but suddenly in the dead of night a phone call came in from BOJ, Maru had taken the call he was surprised, then more surprised, then a bit happy. curious she asked him “who was that” “oh he replied “ it was BOJ, he asked me if i wanted to become the president, i told hem i had already gotten a letter of appointment to teach Chemistry in University, i said i would consider it” that was the first time she got a heart attack. She scrambled, called BOJ back and said of course Maru was interested in the job, of course his Doctors had declared him fit, and Maru became President, Just like that.
That Presidency has tested her wits, it had started off well enough, Maru had as usual gone academic with the agenda thing, he had even managed to bring truce to the Neger Delta, and then it all changed, Maru “issue” started again. The Western hospitals said yes come over, but she was worried about their pesky freedom of information ideas, they might give some idiot online paper an interview. So she went to where reporters were not allowed; Saudi Arabia. She had hoped the folks in Abaja would take care of things, but the common folk kept asking for see Maru, to talk to Maru some even asked he write some letter! Did they elect him? What was their business? She simply ignored them.
When she was awaken with news that Lady Pat was now the acting First lady, it made her decision easy. She drew on all the tenets of KPUSH and her knowledge of men, the funds in the appropriations bill she had signed came into use. She brought back Maru for them, abi they want him to come back? Well he is back.
She then moved quickly, she got 3 months to allow Maru rest, she used the courts to change the rules, and Lady Pat was made the Second lady again. She adopted 36 new daughters, and married them off to 36 young men in 36 states and simply sent to names to Owu, he knew how to get them elected as Governors. She then went to the PaDP and asked for an early election, she asked her bankers to give anyone with a title in Abaja $10million each, and by May it was done. Her son-in-law was the candidate for the Presidency, Andoakaa was made his running mate, it was a landslide, the Senators and Honourables, Judges, Press and Army were busy buying houses in Dubai and UK, they did nit interface.
She promptly made her son in law appoint her Senate President, it was really too easy, “Ghana Must Go” flowed and the Constitution was changed, and only Senators and Honourables could contest elections into the Presidency, of course she being the Senate President was first in line, by 2014 she was President and Commander in Chief.
She zoned the Armed Forces and police to the North, Civil service and Judiciary to the West and Commerce and Banking to the East, she was being equitable she opined. She eliminated the federal character principle and appointed her daughters Min of Finance, Petroleum and CBN Governor. She passed a freedom of Information bill hence all newspapers, radio and TV stations were banned, “since freedom is free, why should anybody make profit from it?” To sanitise the banking system she closed the entire banks apart from one, the Turei Trust Bank, she directed all foreign reserves be transferred there, federation units, and customers doing business with Negeria were mandated to open accounts there. “Well its easier for the CBN to inspect one bank, we have killed off bank failures” she said
all new bank notes now bore the image of Queen Turei, as she said this was to only was to ensure it was not faked. she made supreme courts justices a life time appointment, reduced the judges to two and appointed her adopted daughters as the first Supreme court justices, “it was to empower women she said, the UN had mandated it in the MDG”.
By 2022, she sent a resolution to the Parliament to convert Negeria into a Monarchy, As usual the people had shouted, wrote editorials, went on marches, went to court etc she just smiled. The Parliament by voice vote affirmed her request , Turei, became Her Royal Excellency, Field Marshal, Dr, Chief, Eng, Queen Turei the Magnificent, MNI, PSS, Queen of Negeria and West Africa excluding Ghena .
It was now 2030, the federal capital had been moved to Tureina, as it was nearer to Seudi Arebia, she had solved the power problem by banning Air Conditioners s and Deep freezers, “AC are ruining the ozone layer”, she said. She had solved unemployment by hiring everybody into the federal civil service, to get a salary, you than had to swear an oath of allegiance, not to her but to her office ooh! Education was free, as no one went to school anymore, as everyone was guaranteed a job in the civil service. She sometimes wondered why men who taught they were smarter could not manage to solve these “problems”.
But today in the Turei Presidential library, she was on a peacekeeping mission, her daughters were fighting again, these girls were really embarrassing her, first it was about which states they wanted as 15 year wedding anniversary gifts, then it was about who would get to monopoly to import petrol and shut down NNPC, she was tired. One daughter had had asked the mint to put her picture on the other side of the N1,000,000,000 note, another then simply asked them to create a N1,000,000,000, 000 note and put her picture.
She signed as she opened the door to meet with her warring daughters, it was her problem, and she would fix it.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Nigeria's never changing census
How many are we, and why does it matter?
In simple terms, number of local governments in a state, revenues from the federation account, Senate seats, House of reps seats are all shared out according to population figures. If a state has more people, it receives more from the federation account. State population accounts for 26% of the criteria to share in the 31% allocated to states from the joint federation account, others criteria are;
Basic equality of states 45.23%?
Landmass & Terrain 10.70%
Internal revenue effort 8.31%
Education 3%
Health 3%
Rural road and water ways 1.5%
Portable water 1.5%
(population of LGA carries a 37% weighting to share the 15.31% allocated to them)
So how many people there are in a state or local government is very very important, i would call it the most important asset a state of Local government can have in Nigeria.
So how many are we in Nigeria? We can use the Federal govt and British census figures and break this down into groups of states using geography as a basis. Thus we will have Northern states and Southern States. I will attempt to put the figures from 1952 when Nigeria had the first census till 2006 the last one as below;
Table 1.
1. Census in 1963 and 1973 were cancelled
2. Source; NPC Abuja & census news 1992, ISSN1116-666996
3. Allow for figures rounded off.
In summary, the Northern region since 1953 is reported to have an average of 54.1% of the population of Nigeria. Remember this number i.e. 54%.
As a matter of fact, the Northern region has maintained 54.1% average for all census since independence, the Western region (including Lagos) has maintained an average of 18.7% the East 22.7% and the Mid west 4.9% in all census! Let me be clear in 57 years (1953 to 2006) NO region, North or South, East or Midwest has grown its population exponentially, we have all grown at the same pace. Rural to Urban drift has not occurred in Nigeria in 57 years! The relative proportion of the regions has remained the same. That is the population of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun; and Ekiti has grown the same as Ebonyi, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, and Imo. Ditto for the North. I did not say so; the Nigerian Population Commission said so. Lagos with all the Luxury buses bringing Easterners every day has remained at 18.7% while the East where everybody has a relative in Lagos has maintained at 22.7%.
Nigeria’s national growth rate is 65%, the Northern region grew by average 60% from 1963 to 1991, the Midwest region grew by 78%, and Eastern region grew by 60%, but Lagos and the West declined by 63.6% in the same period i.e. 1963 to 1991. Specifically the Western region grew by 26.3% between 1931 and 1963, then grew by 124% between 1953 and 1963, then slowed down by 63.6% from 1963 to 1991. Again i only publish the figures i see.
But back to our question why is population important? Because the population figures are consistent with election results in Nigeria, i explain;
In 1959, the British conducted elections into the Federal House of Representatives. There were 312 seats on offer, the results allocated 174 seats or 55.8% of the seats to the Northern region, 73 seats or 23.4% to the Eastern region and 65 seats or 20.8%. Since 1959, this has been the norm. In the 1979 presidential elections, the Northern region cast 48.2% or votes, the East 22% and West 25.8. In the 1999 elections the Northern region cast 52.5%, East 24.2% and West 18.3%, in the 2003 elections the North cast 52.3%, East 24.6% and west 13.2. Note that the results for 1999 and 2003 are almost exactly similar. Thus it seems that after 4 years of governance, No Nigerian changed his mind in the North and East, the same numbers of votes were cast, no increase, no decrease.
It seems that the census figures and the electoral results are joined at the hip, i.e. they never change. The totals go up and down, but the independent components do not change, they are frozen in time. The census figures have not changed in 57 years; does this mean the election figures will not change in 57 years? (Didn’t a party promise to rule Nigeria for 60 more years?)
I will make no conclusion, my memo simply brings out the facts, my data are from the FGN own published figures; i urge you all to go online and get your own and compare with mine. These data i use are publically available data, simply Google Nigerian census or Nigerian revenue sharing formulae.
Let’s ask ourselves these questions
Are the census figures correct?
Should population determine how much a state should get? More than portable water, roads, health & education, derivation?
What role should population play in national decision making? Should it play any role?
If population brings money, will any state adopt family planning?
If education and health care brings so little money, will any state provide it?
What can we do going forward?
In simple terms, number of local governments in a state, revenues from the federation account, Senate seats, House of reps seats are all shared out according to population figures. If a state has more people, it receives more from the federation account. State population accounts for 26% of the criteria to share in the 31% allocated to states from the joint federation account, others criteria are;
Basic equality of states 45.23%?
Landmass & Terrain 10.70%
Internal revenue effort 8.31%
Education 3%
Health 3%
Rural road and water ways 1.5%
Portable water 1.5%
(population of LGA carries a 37% weighting to share the 15.31% allocated to them)
So how many people there are in a state or local government is very very important, i would call it the most important asset a state of Local government can have in Nigeria.
So how many are we in Nigeria? We can use the Federal govt and British census figures and break this down into groups of states using geography as a basis. Thus we will have Northern states and Southern States. I will attempt to put the figures from 1952 when Nigeria had the first census till 2006 the last one as below;
Table 1.
1. Census in 1963 and 1973 were cancelled
2. Source; NPC Abuja & census news 1992, ISSN1116-666996
3. Allow for figures rounded off.
In summary, the Northern region since 1953 is reported to have an average of 54.1% of the population of Nigeria. Remember this number i.e. 54%.
As a matter of fact, the Northern region has maintained 54.1% average for all census since independence, the Western region (including Lagos) has maintained an average of 18.7% the East 22.7% and the Mid west 4.9% in all census! Let me be clear in 57 years (1953 to 2006) NO region, North or South, East or Midwest has grown its population exponentially, we have all grown at the same pace. Rural to Urban drift has not occurred in Nigeria in 57 years! The relative proportion of the regions has remained the same. That is the population of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun; and Ekiti has grown the same as Ebonyi, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, and Imo. Ditto for the North. I did not say so; the Nigerian Population Commission said so. Lagos with all the Luxury buses bringing Easterners every day has remained at 18.7% while the East where everybody has a relative in Lagos has maintained at 22.7%.
Nigeria’s national growth rate is 65%, the Northern region grew by average 60% from 1963 to 1991, the Midwest region grew by 78%, and Eastern region grew by 60%, but Lagos and the West declined by 63.6% in the same period i.e. 1963 to 1991. Specifically the Western region grew by 26.3% between 1931 and 1963, then grew by 124% between 1953 and 1963, then slowed down by 63.6% from 1963 to 1991. Again i only publish the figures i see.
But back to our question why is population important? Because the population figures are consistent with election results in Nigeria, i explain;
In 1959, the British conducted elections into the Federal House of Representatives. There were 312 seats on offer, the results allocated 174 seats or 55.8% of the seats to the Northern region, 73 seats or 23.4% to the Eastern region and 65 seats or 20.8%. Since 1959, this has been the norm. In the 1979 presidential elections, the Northern region cast 48.2% or votes, the East 22% and West 25.8. In the 1999 elections the Northern region cast 52.5%, East 24.2% and West 18.3%, in the 2003 elections the North cast 52.3%, East 24.6% and west 13.2. Note that the results for 1999 and 2003 are almost exactly similar. Thus it seems that after 4 years of governance, No Nigerian changed his mind in the North and East, the same numbers of votes were cast, no increase, no decrease.
It seems that the census figures and the electoral results are joined at the hip, i.e. they never change. The totals go up and down, but the independent components do not change, they are frozen in time. The census figures have not changed in 57 years; does this mean the election figures will not change in 57 years? (Didn’t a party promise to rule Nigeria for 60 more years?)
I will make no conclusion, my memo simply brings out the facts, my data are from the FGN own published figures; i urge you all to go online and get your own and compare with mine. These data i use are publically available data, simply Google Nigerian census or Nigerian revenue sharing formulae.
Let’s ask ourselves these questions
Are the census figures correct?
Should population determine how much a state should get? More than portable water, roads, health & education, derivation?
What role should population play in national decision making? Should it play any role?
If population brings money, will any state adopt family planning?
If education and health care brings so little money, will any state provide it?
What can we do going forward?
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