Sunday, October 18, 2009

of wags and waziri

“Wag the dog” is a term used to describe a situation where the tail is wagging the dog or purposely diverting attention from a bigger event to a smaller event in order to refocus the public attention, so that the smaller event assumes a greater role than the bigger event. Like a doctor treating an AIDS patient for headache not the AIDS, thus the Headache gets more attention than the AIDS.

“Wagging the dog” is done all the time, we do it, you promise your son a gift if he comes first in his maths class, he comes first, you forget the gift and when your son asks you immediately fire back that he has not had his bath. Your wife tells you to buy diapers for the baby, you buy beer forget the diapers and when she asks you remind her that your own mother did not use diapers, you get pulled over for driving one way by LASTMA, you immediately challenge them “do you know who I am”? “Why are you calling me Mr”? Don’t you know I am a “Chief”?

But the most adept at playing this game (“yes it’s a game”) are public officials, The ability to play this game is key to your progress through the corridors of power, Examples abound, like you ask the minster of power why there is no power and he says its militants, to take your attention away from the fact that almost $20b has been spent, for 10 years and we are still at less than 3,000MW. you have to be able to say “bitumen” to charges of not repairing Lagos roads and “water goddess” to charges of ocean surges at the bar beach (true, a Lagos state governor said the cause of the ocean surge was that when the ocean goddess see’s her reflection on Fin Bank building, she sends waves to attack the “imposter”. Another governor came and built a wave breaker, same environment, different response).

Ok but for my money (no pun intended) the biggest “wag the dog” is the CBN war on private jets. The EFCC has been in a coma after Ribadu left, yep we have had lots of arrests but curiously no convictions, we have instead had plea bargains, a lot of plea bargains. We have heard of numerous international scandals involving Nigerian public officials, we have the Halliburton saga, the Siemens shocker, we have the N300million Min of Health affair, the N5B Rural Electrification case, the $16bn NIPP power scandals. All these scandals but the EFCC has mobilised the Chairman, 80 operatives and has moved to Lagos to collect bank debts.
“Madam” has given more interviews, more resources more time on these banking crises than any another scandal. Madam even travelled to the IMF conference in Turkey, yes the IMF conference to explain why her commission was collecting bank debts, debt collections is now an “achievement”.
The press has played along, Nigerians no longer talk about ASUU, it’s better to talk about 2 new jets ordered by an ex-bank chief, we don’t talk about electoral reform, it’s better to talk about bonus paid to ex bankers, we don’t realise that there is a Cholera, yes Cholera outbreak in Bornu state its better too argue about what a nonperforming loan is, the National Assembly nko? They too not wanting to be left out of the “loop” last week they actually debated if females should be allowed to work in banks as marketers, in the 21 century Nigeria this is what our lawmakers are debating! but again every time spent on this insane debate is another day not spent on constitutional review or land use reform.
Let’s ask a serious question what is the contribution of the entire financial institutions (banks, insurance, mortgage & stock broking) to our GDP from 1998 to2008? Answer its only 3.93%, Agriculture meanwhile is 41.53%, ok what about the % contribution to GDP growth well for financial institutions its just 1.79%, Agriculture is 45.86%.

No Kalu I don’t believe your figures, how can you say First Bank, Zenith, IGI, Stanbic IBTC and Co only have a 3% share of our GDP? Where are you getting your figures from?

Well consider this, is there is bank in your village? Ok is there a farm in your village? How many people do you know that can walk into a bank a get a loan of N50,000? ok how many people do you know can walk into a village and start planting yams.Banks are huge business but because they are so small when compared to the general wealth and activity of Nigeria their impact is insignificant. So by implications the FGN, the press, the Parliament, EFCC, even we have focused on 3.93% of the economy while 41% languished in non attention. “Wag the dog”?
N200billion for Agriculture to feed 150million, N420million to feed 5 banks “wag the dog”?
Hang on Kalu, even if your figures are correct the US passed Tarp $700b, Obama has jumped into bonus paid to bankers, the whole press in the US focused on AIG, banks have been discussed in the Congress, Michael Moore even has a new film on evils of Capitalism, yep, but the US banking sector short term liabilities alone is 15% of US GDP and 43% of the entire National Debt, Consumer spending is 78% of the GDP of America, almost all the shoppers use Credit cards, debit cards, Bank cards etc, would you allow 78% or 42% of your economy freeze? Ooh Agriculture is 0.9% of the US economy
The EFCC circus with the bank debtors, the public trial on the pages of the papers is a stimulus package to the newspapers and the TV news, and a distraction. It has made all Nigerian experts in risk management (everybody now knows what non-performing loan is) it has enabled Sanusi live out his sheriff desire but at what cost?
Bank lending to the private sector is down, Nigerian letters of credit are not worth the paper they are faxed on, Nigerian banks, (all of them the cleared and uncleared), are now viewed with grave suspicion, the stock market has tanked, consumer credit is over,$2b to be spent on “stimulus” and heck unemployment will rise. Was the crises caused by the banks or is the bank crises an effect of falling oil price? Where would Nigerian economy be of we still had 84 moi moi banks when this crises hit? But i digress.
Ok Kalu but are you saying because its 3% of GDP is not important its not important? Isn’t N420b real money? Oh no! Far from it, i am mealy asking that we don’t only “eat the bankers” lets ensure the “efficiency” of the EFCC spreads around, surly this is a democracy.
The real wag the dog, the villains are the bank CEO’s not the guys mentioned in Siemens, Halliburton, and NIPP etc.

It’s our problem, we will fix it