Don’t just register to vote; register to be voted for also.
In one month Nigeria has witnessed a cataclysmic change in leadership, power changed from the North to the South, but not to the connected Yoruba with their sophisticated power structure and strong institutional human capital base, not to the commercially minded, republican Igbo but to the minority, people of Bayelsa state.
The people of the Delta have long been associated men, who fished at night and slept all day (literally), but without a shot being fired or the intrigues reminiscent of a proper African palace coup, a colourless Delta fellow became the most powerful black African in the world. Make no mistake the president of Nigeria commands oil revenues and juicy appoints he can dish out without going through any pesky congress.
What does this mean? I being a praying man, fully understand God is speaking to Nigerians, who have since crowded out His prayer request box with cries of “God, give us light”, “God give us water”, “God give us road”, so God answered Nigerian, “fellas, you can’t win a lottery unless you buy a ticket”.
In simple terms, Nigeria dodged a bullet in the form of YarAdua and his absence from governance, the Nigerian political class acted with maturity in following the constitution instead of a “gentleman’s” agreement by some old farts to rotate power amongst them. This maturity was enforced by ordinarily Nigerian in the mould of the “Save Nigerian Group” but most importantly by the direct and forceful pressure exerted by the United States of America. It was no coincidence that the Houses of Parliament agreed to “appoint” the Vice President as the “Acting” President only after a high ranking US official Mr Carlson met with the House and Senate leadership and a certain gap tooted general.
America does not want to fix a problem like Nigeria, for them, it is much cheaper to make sure no problem like Nigeria occurs. The problem with Nigeria is elections, because elections determine who controls the oil money and public spending. So fix the electoral process and you have fixed Nigeria, so goes the US theory. Hence to this end, the US signed a Bi National Commission pact; BNC, with Nigeria, central to that agreement is an explicit promise by the USA that they will do all in their power to ensure the 2011 elections are credible, free and fair.
Let me explain the strategy in simple terms, register to contest for a position, if you are running against a stronger opponent, you do not need to get more votes than your opponent, all you need to do is to prove your opponent cheated (stole a ballot box, used thugs etc) and i suspect the election tribunals will hand you the victory. This theory is not a product of the BNC pact, the election of Rotimi Amechi in Rivers was based on this precedent, but the BNC will seek enforce that precedent. Iwu was sacked because of the BNC, the new INEC chairman will be someone the US can work with, and the elections will be devoid of the “do or die attitude”. I predict that a large number of incumbents will lose out.
And the incumbents know this; they have sought to amend the constitution to help them in this event. First they have made the position of independent candidacy constitutional, they have said an indicted candidate can run, and most importantly they are looting the treasury (by increasing their constitutional allowances) to fund their re-election campaigns.
In 1999 many “smart” people (like you reading) stayed away and left the field clear for the “illiterate” politicians, the result has been years of corruption and mismanagement, do not let 2011 be like 1999. Many people are thinking, do i resign from my middle class job and seek the Governors House? Remember there are many non-executive positions, Ward Councillors etc, Do not only seek the high profile executive positions like Governors, Senators, etc, remember Ward Chancellor, LGA Chairman even State House seats also carry the power of change. Obama started as a community organiser.
Do not stand by, don’t just register to vote, register to be voted for also.
That’s one way of fixing this our problem.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
nigeria is going broke
Nigeria is going broke!
We can’t pay our bills, we have no savings.
Our bills are what are on the expenditure side of the annual budget, capital and recurrent i.e. the salaries and also the classrooms and hospitals. So this year we projected we will have bills of N5.2 trillion (4.2t in the budget plus N620b supplementary budget) but we are projecting an income of only N3.08t (based on selling 2.3mbpd at $67) hence we have a budget deficit of N1.52 trillion.
We have projected to fund this N1. 52 trillion deficits by borrowing N897b from Nigerians via bond sales borrow another N75b ($500m) from the international Bond market and sell new oil blocks for N132b. Just recently the President has also forwarded a request to borrow $915m from the World Bank to fund the deficit. Note that the Excess Crude account has been decimated, from a high of $20b in 2008 to just over $2b today, so we can go there. It’s also interesting that the federal government will finance the deficit by borrowing and selling, while Lagos state funds 75% of her budget through internally generated personal income taxes, but i digress.
A close look at the budget revenue figures also shows how optimistic and fragile our assumptions are. We are projecting two things, (a) is that we will sell 2.3mbpd (b) oil will sell at $67 a barrel.
For us to sell 2.3mbpd there has to be zero MEND activity, no bombings, no spills of the pipelines nothing, that is a tall order. (In 2009 with the amnesty and total elimination of sabotage, oil output was put at 2.29mbpd) the oil price assumption is also fragile at best, will oil to remain high with all the bad news coming from the Euro Zone and the US. The point is if oil price falls to $60 and production falls to just 2mbpd then we will create another funding gap of N1trillion naira in the budget. Where will we get another N1trillion, print? Too late the CBN has already printed close to N1.5t for the banks and power sector, AMC i opine will suck up a further N3t. so what can we do? Pray? If we cannot fund this deficit, then we cannot pay the police and civil servants, we cannot repair roads and sponsor the Senators (there is good in every problem)
The simple answer is reducing our expenses, not investments our recurrent expenses. we have to cut our budget to fit our oil revenues, not our spending plans,(sorry Honourables) if we will only get N3trillion in revenues, then the budget should be maybe N2.8trillion not N5trillion, there is nothing like Keynes in Africa. We have to view the oil wealth not as a harvest but as a seed, it should not be spent 150% but at least 10% be set aside for a rainy day.
Nigeria spends so much because we are funding a bloated federal structure. We have inconsequential ministries, wasteful states and local governments that exist only in name and paper. The structure of Nigeria is inherently flawed, the Federal government has allocated to itself powers such as the privilege to educate and provide water to the citizens not because it can do so, but rather to corner the revenues required to pay for these services.
First of all we need to remove the stupid policy of federal character in the constitution because it mandates 36 ministries are created for 36 states. Why is this necessary? What if the president wants just 10 ministers? In effect the constitution is mandating a spending plan irrespective of the revenue earned; because no matter what happens we must maintain 36 ministers and their ministries (The US has 50 states and only 15 cabinet secretaries). At this time, and in the future we need flexibility, We cannot sustain 36 ministries and numerous boards, parastatals, commissions and councils etc what does the National Institute for Cultural orientation do? Should the Nigerian National Merit Award be a commission?
This is important when we consider that in Nigerian budgets recurrent expenditures i.e. salaries and allowances are usually more than the budgets for developmental and simulative activities i.e. road and power projects. The recurrent budgets are a direct consequence of the huge federal workforce. The ministry of education for instance no longer exist to educate students, it now exists to pay salaries, I’ll prove it, 83 % of the funding for federal universities from the 2005 to 2009 went to salaries of the workers, direct teaching and laboratory cost plus research only took 4% of the entire budget! So are they really universities? Or federal salaries paying centres? This tallies with what the former minister said that the budget for the ministry, 90 %goes to the Unity Schools, of which 89% went to pay the salaries of the teachers only, nothing left to buy books and reagents for the labs.
In effect we have used our oil money to pay salaries, instead of investing. Sad.
Next, we cut the size of the federal government by transferring some powers to the states and local governments, and converting ministries who do not contribute to the creation or protection of our GDP into agencies and departments. Specifically, transfer Education, Health, Water and Agriculture Police, Works from the Federal to the State and Local Governments list of responsibilities., then let the Federal govt do Defence, Foreign Affairs, Finance, Labour, Judiciary and Commerce.
The Min of Aviation, Communications, Culture, Environment, Housing, Industry, Information, Power and Steel, Science, Solid minerals, Sports, Transport, Women affairs, convert them to parastatals or agencies. For guidance the average contribution of the aviation sector from 1999 to 2008 to the Nigerian GDP from is less than 0.06%, yet it a ministry with 2 ministers, permanent secretaries, state offices, but most importantly budgetary allocations, a waste.
Is it reasonable that we can have a minister in Abuja who will dictate where and how water bore holes will be built? Should water be a federal duty or state and local govt duty? Can the federal minister oversee nomadic education in Funtua and also oversee boy child education in Abiriba, should this not be a duty for the states?
The federalisation of Nigeria has taken responsibility away from those closest to the electorate. Who should we hold responsible for the 10 % pass rate of the NECO exams? States or federal government? We can’t really say, these are federal exams, taken by state students, paid by federal money to local, state and federal teachers. Make it simple, lets the states and local government be responsible for the quality of education and pass scores in their states and LGA.
Also remember that states earn PAYE tax, Federal does not. Lagos as an example generates N14b a month, 75% of that figures comes from PAYE, Levies and fines. So if water and education is moved to the states, you as a citizen can demand to see your tax money at work from your state governor, LGA chairman, not a faceless senator in a big house in Abuja.
The GDP growth of the Nigerian economy has come not from oil (which generates the bulk of foreign exchange) but from the nonoil sector, which has an 80 % share of the GDP Level. The policy of the government should be to utilise the oil earning to grow the non oil sector by provision of infrastructure and the well being of the citizens, the oil money has been used to pay salaries, meet JV calls of the oil majors, repay foreign debts. Less than 30% is earmarked for capital projects, which are simulative.
The oil sector is simply the federal government the non oil sector the private sector, the federal and state government (any government) cannot create jobs, it can only distribute cash for spending; only the private sector can create jobs. (That’s why the Ugoji awards did not create any economic base but rather increased inflation). To grow GDP we must create in the economy the conditions that will make private investors borrow and invest capital.
But Kalu, you really want to give the governors the education and health budget to spend, are you serious? They will just host seminars and lobby to become VP with the money. Not really, the governors have had a free ride because the Federal government have provided them a good cover. Ask why roads are bad the answer is FERMA, ask why schools are bad the answer is SUPEB (funded by the federal govt), ask why there is not drugs in the hospital, the answer is that Min of Health has not done counterpart funding. Let the Federal government set policy, set up the master plan, then let the states implement and spend to achieve it. A governor and a LGA are easier to get to than a minister in far away Abuja.
It will be tough, but once people start paying taxes and realise the states are responsible they will hold them accountable.
Then we make the parliament a part time job, yes i am serious in the second republic the parliamentarian were not full time allowance collectors, they came in, sat and were paid sitting allowances, now a senator gets N42 a quarter for passing just 4 bills from 2007 till date. By making the lawmakers earn only sitting allowances this nation will save N102billion a year (this is the yearly cost of maintaining the Senators and House of Reps members a year). Then we pass the Freedom of Information bill FOI so no idiot governor can buy a TV for N500k
This is my take, but nothing can work till we eliminate section 14(3) of the constitution, look it up, it’s a big contributing factor to why we are underdeveloped.
This Nigeria remains out problem, we need to fix it.
We can’t pay our bills, we have no savings.
Our bills are what are on the expenditure side of the annual budget, capital and recurrent i.e. the salaries and also the classrooms and hospitals. So this year we projected we will have bills of N5.2 trillion (4.2t in the budget plus N620b supplementary budget) but we are projecting an income of only N3.08t (based on selling 2.3mbpd at $67) hence we have a budget deficit of N1.52 trillion.
We have projected to fund this N1. 52 trillion deficits by borrowing N897b from Nigerians via bond sales borrow another N75b ($500m) from the international Bond market and sell new oil blocks for N132b. Just recently the President has also forwarded a request to borrow $915m from the World Bank to fund the deficit. Note that the Excess Crude account has been decimated, from a high of $20b in 2008 to just over $2b today, so we can go there. It’s also interesting that the federal government will finance the deficit by borrowing and selling, while Lagos state funds 75% of her budget through internally generated personal income taxes, but i digress.
A close look at the budget revenue figures also shows how optimistic and fragile our assumptions are. We are projecting two things, (a) is that we will sell 2.3mbpd (b) oil will sell at $67 a barrel.
For us to sell 2.3mbpd there has to be zero MEND activity, no bombings, no spills of the pipelines nothing, that is a tall order. (In 2009 with the amnesty and total elimination of sabotage, oil output was put at 2.29mbpd) the oil price assumption is also fragile at best, will oil to remain high with all the bad news coming from the Euro Zone and the US. The point is if oil price falls to $60 and production falls to just 2mbpd then we will create another funding gap of N1trillion naira in the budget. Where will we get another N1trillion, print? Too late the CBN has already printed close to N1.5t for the banks and power sector, AMC i opine will suck up a further N3t. so what can we do? Pray? If we cannot fund this deficit, then we cannot pay the police and civil servants, we cannot repair roads and sponsor the Senators (there is good in every problem)
The simple answer is reducing our expenses, not investments our recurrent expenses. we have to cut our budget to fit our oil revenues, not our spending plans,(sorry Honourables) if we will only get N3trillion in revenues, then the budget should be maybe N2.8trillion not N5trillion, there is nothing like Keynes in Africa. We have to view the oil wealth not as a harvest but as a seed, it should not be spent 150% but at least 10% be set aside for a rainy day.
Nigeria spends so much because we are funding a bloated federal structure. We have inconsequential ministries, wasteful states and local governments that exist only in name and paper. The structure of Nigeria is inherently flawed, the Federal government has allocated to itself powers such as the privilege to educate and provide water to the citizens not because it can do so, but rather to corner the revenues required to pay for these services.
First of all we need to remove the stupid policy of federal character in the constitution because it mandates 36 ministries are created for 36 states. Why is this necessary? What if the president wants just 10 ministers? In effect the constitution is mandating a spending plan irrespective of the revenue earned; because no matter what happens we must maintain 36 ministers and their ministries (The US has 50 states and only 15 cabinet secretaries). At this time, and in the future we need flexibility, We cannot sustain 36 ministries and numerous boards, parastatals, commissions and councils etc what does the National Institute for Cultural orientation do? Should the Nigerian National Merit Award be a commission?
This is important when we consider that in Nigerian budgets recurrent expenditures i.e. salaries and allowances are usually more than the budgets for developmental and simulative activities i.e. road and power projects. The recurrent budgets are a direct consequence of the huge federal workforce. The ministry of education for instance no longer exist to educate students, it now exists to pay salaries, I’ll prove it, 83 % of the funding for federal universities from the 2005 to 2009 went to salaries of the workers, direct teaching and laboratory cost plus research only took 4% of the entire budget! So are they really universities? Or federal salaries paying centres? This tallies with what the former minister said that the budget for the ministry, 90 %goes to the Unity Schools, of which 89% went to pay the salaries of the teachers only, nothing left to buy books and reagents for the labs.
In effect we have used our oil money to pay salaries, instead of investing. Sad.
Next, we cut the size of the federal government by transferring some powers to the states and local governments, and converting ministries who do not contribute to the creation or protection of our GDP into agencies and departments. Specifically, transfer Education, Health, Water and Agriculture Police, Works from the Federal to the State and Local Governments list of responsibilities., then let the Federal govt do Defence, Foreign Affairs, Finance, Labour, Judiciary and Commerce.
The Min of Aviation, Communications, Culture, Environment, Housing, Industry, Information, Power and Steel, Science, Solid minerals, Sports, Transport, Women affairs, convert them to parastatals or agencies. For guidance the average contribution of the aviation sector from 1999 to 2008 to the Nigerian GDP from is less than 0.06%, yet it a ministry with 2 ministers, permanent secretaries, state offices, but most importantly budgetary allocations, a waste.
Is it reasonable that we can have a minister in Abuja who will dictate where and how water bore holes will be built? Should water be a federal duty or state and local govt duty? Can the federal minister oversee nomadic education in Funtua and also oversee boy child education in Abiriba, should this not be a duty for the states?
The federalisation of Nigeria has taken responsibility away from those closest to the electorate. Who should we hold responsible for the 10 % pass rate of the NECO exams? States or federal government? We can’t really say, these are federal exams, taken by state students, paid by federal money to local, state and federal teachers. Make it simple, lets the states and local government be responsible for the quality of education and pass scores in their states and LGA.
Also remember that states earn PAYE tax, Federal does not. Lagos as an example generates N14b a month, 75% of that figures comes from PAYE, Levies and fines. So if water and education is moved to the states, you as a citizen can demand to see your tax money at work from your state governor, LGA chairman, not a faceless senator in a big house in Abuja.
The GDP growth of the Nigerian economy has come not from oil (which generates the bulk of foreign exchange) but from the nonoil sector, which has an 80 % share of the GDP Level. The policy of the government should be to utilise the oil earning to grow the non oil sector by provision of infrastructure and the well being of the citizens, the oil money has been used to pay salaries, meet JV calls of the oil majors, repay foreign debts. Less than 30% is earmarked for capital projects, which are simulative.
The oil sector is simply the federal government the non oil sector the private sector, the federal and state government (any government) cannot create jobs, it can only distribute cash for spending; only the private sector can create jobs. (That’s why the Ugoji awards did not create any economic base but rather increased inflation). To grow GDP we must create in the economy the conditions that will make private investors borrow and invest capital.
But Kalu, you really want to give the governors the education and health budget to spend, are you serious? They will just host seminars and lobby to become VP with the money. Not really, the governors have had a free ride because the Federal government have provided them a good cover. Ask why roads are bad the answer is FERMA, ask why schools are bad the answer is SUPEB (funded by the federal govt), ask why there is not drugs in the hospital, the answer is that Min of Health has not done counterpart funding. Let the Federal government set policy, set up the master plan, then let the states implement and spend to achieve it. A governor and a LGA are easier to get to than a minister in far away Abuja.
It will be tough, but once people start paying taxes and realise the states are responsible they will hold them accountable.
Then we make the parliament a part time job, yes i am serious in the second republic the parliamentarian were not full time allowance collectors, they came in, sat and were paid sitting allowances, now a senator gets N42 a quarter for passing just 4 bills from 2007 till date. By making the lawmakers earn only sitting allowances this nation will save N102billion a year (this is the yearly cost of maintaining the Senators and House of Reps members a year). Then we pass the Freedom of Information bill FOI so no idiot governor can buy a TV for N500k
This is my take, but nothing can work till we eliminate section 14(3) of the constitution, look it up, it’s a big contributing factor to why we are underdeveloped.
This Nigeria remains out problem, we need to fix it.
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