By 1978, the GDP of China was $147b; Today China is a $4,900b economy, that is a 3,233% GDP growth in 31years. Can Nigeria grow her GDP by 178% in 9 years?
The Vision 202020 is a plan to make Nigeria one of the 20 biggest economies by 2020, i.e. in 9 years Nigeria will overtake Belgium (the 20th largest economy) which has a GDP $470b. Nigeria has a current GDP of $173b. For Nigeria to overtake Belgium by 2020, we would have to grow our economy by 178% or 19% in 9 years. Please note that Belgium has to "stand still" for 9 years, Possible?
Currently in Nigeria, there is corruption, no power, no roads, no security, no credit, yet the economy has grown on average 7% a year. Therefore, a lay argument will be to say if we simply double our power generation, it will bump our GDP to 14% a year.
GDP means how much productive active happens in a country, it is the addition of
To get a good GDP score, it means you have to spend money in your country on stuff and export stuff. Note that investment in shares does not qualify as investments under calculation of GDP, and all imports are deducted.
Therefore, it is clear that Nigeria GDP is low because we export oil and bring in billions of $, then we import everything, and the bulk of the population has low spending power.
So to grow by 19% a year Nigeria needs to develop the infrastructure that will make us export, and grow the spending powers of Nigerians by creating a middle class. Primarily we need to build up our infrastructure.
So the first question is how do we develop the infrastructure of Nigeria?
The Nigerian Urban development Bank recently stated that Nigeria would need N32t to repair and invest in new infrastructure. Clearly, we do not have N32t and we really cannot borrow it, that $213b, we cannot get it from oil sales because we make average $11b a year from oil, and immediately spend in on salaries and allowances. We cannot get it from import duty and VAT either, combined all non-oil revenues bring in average $5b a year. What about Foreign Direct Investments? We got $11b last year, even though this figure has been rising, it is not guaranteed, one bad MEND headline and poof! So where?
I think we should focus on our citizens offshore who are earning foreign currency, have access to credit, and can channel financial assets to Nigeria.
Nigeria is called the Giant of Africa why? It not because our landmass, Sudan takes that, it’s not our heritage Egypt has that, it’s not our oil wealth, Libya has that, it’s not our mineral wealth that Congo so what? It is our people. It is not just our population of 150m in Nigeria but the 12m or so offshore.
The World Bank released a report showing that $21b was remitted to Africa in 2009; out of that figure, $10b went to Nigeria I.e. Nigerian citizens sent cash via Western Union and the like to their families etc. That is massive economic power, to put that in perspective, Western union payments of $10b bring in as much as FDI and Oil! Astonishing. That figure was just 6% of our GDP..
So is it possible to tap this group of Nigerians and raise the remittances to say $30b a year from $10b? Yes, it is, considers that India got $35b in FDI in 2009 but got $55b in the same 2009.
However, we need foreign currency investments and not just remittances, remittances are simply cash sent home, FDI are cash sent in to make or take a stake in a business or enterprise. Our bad perception means we might not get the huge foreign FDI, but we already have huge remittances. The paper proposes we instead focus on increasing the level of remittances and locking them in as investments. Remittances are from Nigerians, they will likely understand the headlines about kidnapping, bombings and 419, oyibo wont. In effect, sell Nigeria to Nigerians.
What Nigeria needs to do is to create a series of 10-year dev bonds to invest directly in specific revenue generating infrastructure i.e. airports, tolls roads, inland port in Lokoja etc, each with its own earnings stream. Lets the investors pay directly to the bonds SPV, not the federation account, the SPV collect the fees from the project and pay back to the SPV which will pay off the investors., the coupons should be tax free and allow the repatriation of 100% the proceeds in forex with no restrictions back to the country where it came from.
In effect, break the total N32t needed for infrastructure into separate project based bonds. The main point is that we match the revenue projects to bonds and let the projects not the federation account pay off the debt. We can add sweeteners, the proceeds can be used to buy oil at discounted prices or pay for federal or state land at a discount. Central to this is that if Emeka can send back $100 to Chidi in Aba, he can invest $1,000 in a bond.
It is not mere patriotism, its business, if you invested $1,000 in a 10 year US, UK or Euro zone bond you would get 3% at best, in Nigeria you would get 8%.But Kalu, Nigerians offshore don’t have $213b, where will they get it from? They can take a mortgage. They might not have that amount in cash but they have access to credit, which we do not have in Nigeria.
Right now Tunde in Baltimore can borrow $1,000 from bank of America at 3% interest rate buy the Nigeria development bond earn a 4% premium, tidy and everybody wins. If without a remittance programme we get $10b with this programme, we will get a lot more. This will allow Nigeria build the infrastructure off balance sheet i.e. off budget
Yeah, but almost all the states in Nigeria have sold bonds, even the Nigerian govt has a plan to sell $500m bonds, yet we are still hungry, what different? The states have raised bonds mainly to smooth out their revenue streams, i.e. the bonds are not designed to be deployed to a particular project but are simply raised to go into the accounts of the state governments who spend as they see fit. If we consider that the federal and state spend far more on recurrent than capital projects, it then presumes that the bonds are raised to pay salaries and allowances.
In this model the states will generate revenue backed projects they want the FGN to fund from the Nigerian Development bonds, let the FGN set out specific revenue and payback criteria to access the bonds, no Federal Character here, if states can match it the criteria, they don’t get the funds.
On the average, Nigeria spends about 30% of her budgets on capital (infrastructure) projects, that's hardly enough. This model will also ensure only capital projects are financed through the development bonds.
However, i suspect no one will invest in North Korean bonds if they are paying 100% a month. This is the challenge for Nigeria leaders, they must install confidence in investors, investors must know that if they invest in Nigeria they will get their coupons back, that some politician will not take it way or some major will do a coup, We should be transparent, conduct a fair poll in 2011, pass the FOI, show we are serious about fighting corruption. Its important to note that Nigeria has never failed to honour any interest payments on any debt since the creation of Nigeria
Once we secure the infrastructure funding, the govt can them use the oil money for education and health and increase the minimum wages to grow consumption and recreate an educated middle class. As consumption grows, our GDP rises.
However, not just the offshore money but the brains as well. In every western university, there are Nigerians, learning or teaching, in every Fortune 500 company there are Nigeria working or doing business with them. Just as India and China used the brainpower and entrepreneur drive of her returning western-trained citizens to add points to their GDP board, Nigeria must do the same.
Imagine if Emanalo and Finidi both come back from Betis and Chelsea to manage Sharks and Enyimba. Now imagine if our doctors and engineers also came back.
Imagine our offshore doctors bringing in equipment and knowhow and pass on to the Nigerian based doctors. Imagine our lecturers bring in experience on how to access research grants to our local lectures, our engineers installing solar panels in Katsina. With all the money, we need brainpower and Nigeria has it in abundance offshore.
But not just Nigerians, lets get radical and offer Nigerian citizenship to investors willing to invest $1,000,000 in the 10 year bonds no questions asked, if the Chinese want to come , let then come, but let them pay. Just like the Canadian do the points based auction for immigration.
There is a unique opportunity for Nigeria, capital is flowing from North America to Asia, Nigeria should position Nigeria as a mid way destination, the bond yields, the distance, the market and the English language all favour Nigeria.
Time and chance happens to them all, let’s not let this chance go to waste
It is our problem, let us fix it.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Thursday, October 21, 2010
remembering Rosa Parks, dont stand up
A decision is a powerful thing, a decision leads to events, and events are not singular, they affect people far removed from the decision maker, events lead to history.
At 6pm on the 1st of Dec 1955 in Montgomery Alabama, Rosa Parks decided to break the law; she refused to stand up and give up her seat, as was the law since 1900 to a white passenger on a public bus in Montgomery, Alabama, in response she was arrested by the police.
Her arrest led to the Montgomery bus boycott, which was coordinated by a young unknown black preacher, named Martin Luther King. The success of the boycott promoted Martin Luther King to national prominence made him the father of the Civil Rights movement, and led to the “i have a dream speech” and ultimately the passage of the Civil Rights Bill and the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. Therefore, you see a premeditated decision is the most powerful thing in the world.
Back to Rosa Parks, it was bad for her, following the success of the boycott she suffered, she was in jail, sacked from her job, her husband also had to quit, and she had to leave Montgomery because she could no longer get a job there. She was hounded, they both suffered from ulcers, they never had children. when she was 91, she lived in a flat, could not pay her rents, she was about to be evicted, but the owners gave her the flat rent free, she survived on charity. Nevertheless, when she died in October 2005 she was laid in honour in the Rotunda of the US capital, the first woman in the USA to receive the honour. So a good decision might bring you pain, but offers great reward.
I do not think Rosa Parks knew her action that day would be so far reaching, in fact she had never met Martin Luther King before the boycott, Martin Luther was a new comer to Montgomery. She didn’t refuse to stand up from her seat because she wanted to help elect a black man into the White House in 2008, No, she just wanted to fight her own little fight in her little Montgomery.
In life, we will be presented with choices to make a decision, and sometimes the decision may not seem material at first, we could be asked to pay a bribe for a vote, we could be asked to take a bribe in return for a vote, the decisions we make will have far-reaching consequences.
We must not only fight the “Abuja” fight, we also should stay focused on our Local Government Areas and Wards . Rosa Parks was a civil rights activist, in fact, she was the Secretary of the local NAACP, but she did not take her fight for civil rights first to Washington, then Alabama then Montgomery, she started small in Montgomery then Alabama then Washington.
The lessons for Nigerians who just as Rosa Parks are living in the bondage of no roads, power or hospitals, is first make a premeditated decision to cause a change, then act local first with a global strategy in mind.
For example, go online to the Ministry of Finance Website www.fmf.gov.ng or Accountant General of the Federation www.oagf.gov.ng or the budget office www.budgetoffice.gov.ng. Print out 100 copies of the allocation your LGA receives monthly, go to your bad road/street, and distribute the copies to every house hold and challenge the ward chairman to get the LGA chairman to fix the bad road. Will it work? I do not know but at the least, the Ward Councillor will make a mental note to patch the road before those troublesome street tenants “spoils his gari”
Imagine if every ward Councillor was hounded in Aba to fix the roads, imagine if every Ward Councillor in Aba was hounded to clear rubbish from the streets?, imagine if every ward chancellor was hounded to set up a primary health care clinic in Aba? Imagine if every ward chancellor in Aba was hounded to set up a small SME for the “boys”? Just imagine if all Aba councillors were hounded for the 10 years we have had this democracy, there would have been no kidnapping in Aba.
Our problems are local, not international, your ward chancellor has no police escort, he still lives and sleeps in your area, his kids still go to the school next door, do you know him?
As we remember the First Lady of the Civil Rights Movement Rosa Parks, i ask you to make a decision not to stand up.
Let us fix our problem Nigeria.
Kalu A.
At 6pm on the 1st of Dec 1955 in Montgomery Alabama, Rosa Parks decided to break the law; she refused to stand up and give up her seat, as was the law since 1900 to a white passenger on a public bus in Montgomery, Alabama, in response she was arrested by the police.
Her arrest led to the Montgomery bus boycott, which was coordinated by a young unknown black preacher, named Martin Luther King. The success of the boycott promoted Martin Luther King to national prominence made him the father of the Civil Rights movement, and led to the “i have a dream speech” and ultimately the passage of the Civil Rights Bill and the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. Therefore, you see a premeditated decision is the most powerful thing in the world.
Back to Rosa Parks, it was bad for her, following the success of the boycott she suffered, she was in jail, sacked from her job, her husband also had to quit, and she had to leave Montgomery because she could no longer get a job there. She was hounded, they both suffered from ulcers, they never had children. when she was 91, she lived in a flat, could not pay her rents, she was about to be evicted, but the owners gave her the flat rent free, she survived on charity. Nevertheless, when she died in October 2005 she was laid in honour in the Rotunda of the US capital, the first woman in the USA to receive the honour. So a good decision might bring you pain, but offers great reward.
I do not think Rosa Parks knew her action that day would be so far reaching, in fact she had never met Martin Luther King before the boycott, Martin Luther was a new comer to Montgomery. She didn’t refuse to stand up from her seat because she wanted to help elect a black man into the White House in 2008, No, she just wanted to fight her own little fight in her little Montgomery.
In life, we will be presented with choices to make a decision, and sometimes the decision may not seem material at first, we could be asked to pay a bribe for a vote, we could be asked to take a bribe in return for a vote, the decisions we make will have far-reaching consequences.
We must not only fight the “Abuja” fight, we also should stay focused on our Local Government Areas and Wards . Rosa Parks was a civil rights activist, in fact, she was the Secretary of the local NAACP, but she did not take her fight for civil rights first to Washington, then Alabama then Montgomery, she started small in Montgomery then Alabama then Washington.
The lessons for Nigerians who just as Rosa Parks are living in the bondage of no roads, power or hospitals, is first make a premeditated decision to cause a change, then act local first with a global strategy in mind.
For example, go online to the Ministry of Finance Website www.fmf.gov.ng or Accountant General of the Federation www.oagf.gov.ng or the budget office www.budgetoffice.gov.ng. Print out 100 copies of the allocation your LGA receives monthly, go to your bad road/street, and distribute the copies to every house hold and challenge the ward chairman to get the LGA chairman to fix the bad road. Will it work? I do not know but at the least, the Ward Councillor will make a mental note to patch the road before those troublesome street tenants “spoils his gari”
Imagine if every ward Councillor was hounded in Aba to fix the roads, imagine if every Ward Councillor in Aba was hounded to clear rubbish from the streets?, imagine if every ward chancellor was hounded to set up a primary health care clinic in Aba? Imagine if every ward chancellor in Aba was hounded to set up a small SME for the “boys”? Just imagine if all Aba councillors were hounded for the 10 years we have had this democracy, there would have been no kidnapping in Aba.
Our problems are local, not international, your ward chancellor has no police escort, he still lives and sleeps in your area, his kids still go to the school next door, do you know him?
As we remember the First Lady of the Civil Rights Movement Rosa Parks, i ask you to make a decision not to stand up.
Let us fix our problem Nigeria.
Kalu A.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
register to be voted for
Don’t just register to vote; register to be voted for also.
In one month Nigeria has witnessed a cataclysmic change in leadership, power changed from the North to the South, but not to the connected Yoruba with their sophisticated power structure and strong institutional human capital base, not to the commercially minded, republican Igbo but to the minority, people of Bayelsa state.
The people of the Delta have long been associated men, who fished at night and slept all day (literally), but without a shot being fired or the intrigues reminiscent of a proper African palace coup, a colourless Delta fellow became the most powerful black African in the world. Make no mistake the president of Nigeria commands oil revenues and juicy appoints he can dish out without going through any pesky congress.
What does this mean? I being a praying man, fully understand God is speaking to Nigerians, who have since crowded out His prayer request box with cries of “God, give us light”, “God give us water”, “God give us road”, so God answered Nigerian, “fellas, you can’t win a lottery unless you buy a ticket”.
In simple terms, Nigeria dodged a bullet in the form of YarAdua and his absence from governance, the Nigerian political class acted with maturity in following the constitution instead of a “gentleman’s” agreement by some old farts to rotate power amongst them. This maturity was enforced by ordinarily Nigerian in the mould of the “Save Nigerian Group” but most importantly by the direct and forceful pressure exerted by the United States of America. It was no coincidence that the Houses of Parliament agreed to “appoint” the Vice President as the “Acting” President only after a high ranking US official Mr Carlson met with the House and Senate leadership and a certain gap tooted general.
America does not want to fix a problem like Nigeria, for them, it is much cheaper to make sure no problem like Nigeria occurs. The problem with Nigeria is elections, because elections determine who controls the oil money and public spending. So fix the electoral process and you have fixed Nigeria, so goes the US theory. Hence to this end, the US signed a Bi National Commission pact; BNC, with Nigeria, central to that agreement is an explicit promise by the USA that they will do all in their power to ensure the 2011 elections are credible, free and fair.
Let me explain the strategy in simple terms, register to contest for a position, if you are running against a stronger opponent, you do not need to get more votes than your opponent, all you need to do is to prove your opponent cheated (stole a ballot box, used thugs etc) and i suspect the election tribunals will hand you the victory. This theory is not a product of the BNC pact, the election of Rotimi Amechi in Rivers was based on this precedent, but the BNC will seek enforce that precedent. Iwu was sacked because of the BNC, the new INEC chairman will be someone the US can work with, and the elections will be devoid of the “do or die attitude”. I predict that a large number of incumbents will lose out.
And the incumbents know this; they have sought to amend the constitution to help them in this event. First they have made the position of independent candidacy constitutional, they have said an indicted candidate can run, and most importantly they are looting the treasury (by increasing their constitutional allowances) to fund their re-election campaigns.
In 1999 many “smart” people (like you reading) stayed away and left the field clear for the “illiterate” politicians, the result has been years of corruption and mismanagement, do not let 2011 be like 1999. Many people are thinking, do i resign from my middle class job and seek the Governors House? Remember there are many non-executive positions, Ward Councillors etc, Do not only seek the high profile executive positions like Governors, Senators, etc, remember Ward Chancellor, LGA Chairman even State House seats also carry the power of change. Obama started as a community organiser.
Do not stand by, don’t just register to vote, register to be voted for also.
That’s one way of fixing this our problem.
In one month Nigeria has witnessed a cataclysmic change in leadership, power changed from the North to the South, but not to the connected Yoruba with their sophisticated power structure and strong institutional human capital base, not to the commercially minded, republican Igbo but to the minority, people of Bayelsa state.
The people of the Delta have long been associated men, who fished at night and slept all day (literally), but without a shot being fired or the intrigues reminiscent of a proper African palace coup, a colourless Delta fellow became the most powerful black African in the world. Make no mistake the president of Nigeria commands oil revenues and juicy appoints he can dish out without going through any pesky congress.
What does this mean? I being a praying man, fully understand God is speaking to Nigerians, who have since crowded out His prayer request box with cries of “God, give us light”, “God give us water”, “God give us road”, so God answered Nigerian, “fellas, you can’t win a lottery unless you buy a ticket”.
In simple terms, Nigeria dodged a bullet in the form of YarAdua and his absence from governance, the Nigerian political class acted with maturity in following the constitution instead of a “gentleman’s” agreement by some old farts to rotate power amongst them. This maturity was enforced by ordinarily Nigerian in the mould of the “Save Nigerian Group” but most importantly by the direct and forceful pressure exerted by the United States of America. It was no coincidence that the Houses of Parliament agreed to “appoint” the Vice President as the “Acting” President only after a high ranking US official Mr Carlson met with the House and Senate leadership and a certain gap tooted general.
America does not want to fix a problem like Nigeria, for them, it is much cheaper to make sure no problem like Nigeria occurs. The problem with Nigeria is elections, because elections determine who controls the oil money and public spending. So fix the electoral process and you have fixed Nigeria, so goes the US theory. Hence to this end, the US signed a Bi National Commission pact; BNC, with Nigeria, central to that agreement is an explicit promise by the USA that they will do all in their power to ensure the 2011 elections are credible, free and fair.
Let me explain the strategy in simple terms, register to contest for a position, if you are running against a stronger opponent, you do not need to get more votes than your opponent, all you need to do is to prove your opponent cheated (stole a ballot box, used thugs etc) and i suspect the election tribunals will hand you the victory. This theory is not a product of the BNC pact, the election of Rotimi Amechi in Rivers was based on this precedent, but the BNC will seek enforce that precedent. Iwu was sacked because of the BNC, the new INEC chairman will be someone the US can work with, and the elections will be devoid of the “do or die attitude”. I predict that a large number of incumbents will lose out.
And the incumbents know this; they have sought to amend the constitution to help them in this event. First they have made the position of independent candidacy constitutional, they have said an indicted candidate can run, and most importantly they are looting the treasury (by increasing their constitutional allowances) to fund their re-election campaigns.
In 1999 many “smart” people (like you reading) stayed away and left the field clear for the “illiterate” politicians, the result has been years of corruption and mismanagement, do not let 2011 be like 1999. Many people are thinking, do i resign from my middle class job and seek the Governors House? Remember there are many non-executive positions, Ward Councillors etc, Do not only seek the high profile executive positions like Governors, Senators, etc, remember Ward Chancellor, LGA Chairman even State House seats also carry the power of change. Obama started as a community organiser.
Do not stand by, don’t just register to vote, register to be voted for also.
That’s one way of fixing this our problem.
nigeria is going broke
Nigeria is going broke!
We can’t pay our bills, we have no savings.
Our bills are what are on the expenditure side of the annual budget, capital and recurrent i.e. the salaries and also the classrooms and hospitals. So this year we projected we will have bills of N5.2 trillion (4.2t in the budget plus N620b supplementary budget) but we are projecting an income of only N3.08t (based on selling 2.3mbpd at $67) hence we have a budget deficit of N1.52 trillion.
We have projected to fund this N1. 52 trillion deficits by borrowing N897b from Nigerians via bond sales borrow another N75b ($500m) from the international Bond market and sell new oil blocks for N132b. Just recently the President has also forwarded a request to borrow $915m from the World Bank to fund the deficit. Note that the Excess Crude account has been decimated, from a high of $20b in 2008 to just over $2b today, so we can go there. It’s also interesting that the federal government will finance the deficit by borrowing and selling, while Lagos state funds 75% of her budget through internally generated personal income taxes, but i digress.
A close look at the budget revenue figures also shows how optimistic and fragile our assumptions are. We are projecting two things, (a) is that we will sell 2.3mbpd (b) oil will sell at $67 a barrel.
For us to sell 2.3mbpd there has to be zero MEND activity, no bombings, no spills of the pipelines nothing, that is a tall order. (In 2009 with the amnesty and total elimination of sabotage, oil output was put at 2.29mbpd) the oil price assumption is also fragile at best, will oil to remain high with all the bad news coming from the Euro Zone and the US. The point is if oil price falls to $60 and production falls to just 2mbpd then we will create another funding gap of N1trillion naira in the budget. Where will we get another N1trillion, print? Too late the CBN has already printed close to N1.5t for the banks and power sector, AMC i opine will suck up a further N3t. so what can we do? Pray? If we cannot fund this deficit, then we cannot pay the police and civil servants, we cannot repair roads and sponsor the Senators (there is good in every problem)
The simple answer is reducing our expenses, not investments our recurrent expenses. we have to cut our budget to fit our oil revenues, not our spending plans,(sorry Honourables) if we will only get N3trillion in revenues, then the budget should be maybe N2.8trillion not N5trillion, there is nothing like Keynes in Africa. We have to view the oil wealth not as a harvest but as a seed, it should not be spent 150% but at least 10% be set aside for a rainy day.
Nigeria spends so much because we are funding a bloated federal structure. We have inconsequential ministries, wasteful states and local governments that exist only in name and paper. The structure of Nigeria is inherently flawed, the Federal government has allocated to itself powers such as the privilege to educate and provide water to the citizens not because it can do so, but rather to corner the revenues required to pay for these services.
First of all we need to remove the stupid policy of federal character in the constitution because it mandates 36 ministries are created for 36 states. Why is this necessary? What if the president wants just 10 ministers? In effect the constitution is mandating a spending plan irrespective of the revenue earned; because no matter what happens we must maintain 36 ministers and their ministries (The US has 50 states and only 15 cabinet secretaries). At this time, and in the future we need flexibility, We cannot sustain 36 ministries and numerous boards, parastatals, commissions and councils etc what does the National Institute for Cultural orientation do? Should the Nigerian National Merit Award be a commission?
This is important when we consider that in Nigerian budgets recurrent expenditures i.e. salaries and allowances are usually more than the budgets for developmental and simulative activities i.e. road and power projects. The recurrent budgets are a direct consequence of the huge federal workforce. The ministry of education for instance no longer exist to educate students, it now exists to pay salaries, I’ll prove it, 83 % of the funding for federal universities from the 2005 to 2009 went to salaries of the workers, direct teaching and laboratory cost plus research only took 4% of the entire budget! So are they really universities? Or federal salaries paying centres? This tallies with what the former minister said that the budget for the ministry, 90 %goes to the Unity Schools, of which 89% went to pay the salaries of the teachers only, nothing left to buy books and reagents for the labs.
In effect we have used our oil money to pay salaries, instead of investing. Sad.
Next, we cut the size of the federal government by transferring some powers to the states and local governments, and converting ministries who do not contribute to the creation or protection of our GDP into agencies and departments. Specifically, transfer Education, Health, Water and Agriculture Police, Works from the Federal to the State and Local Governments list of responsibilities., then let the Federal govt do Defence, Foreign Affairs, Finance, Labour, Judiciary and Commerce.
The Min of Aviation, Communications, Culture, Environment, Housing, Industry, Information, Power and Steel, Science, Solid minerals, Sports, Transport, Women affairs, convert them to parastatals or agencies. For guidance the average contribution of the aviation sector from 1999 to 2008 to the Nigerian GDP from is less than 0.06%, yet it a ministry with 2 ministers, permanent secretaries, state offices, but most importantly budgetary allocations, a waste.
Is it reasonable that we can have a minister in Abuja who will dictate where and how water bore holes will be built? Should water be a federal duty or state and local govt duty? Can the federal minister oversee nomadic education in Funtua and also oversee boy child education in Abiriba, should this not be a duty for the states?
The federalisation of Nigeria has taken responsibility away from those closest to the electorate. Who should we hold responsible for the 10 % pass rate of the NECO exams? States or federal government? We can’t really say, these are federal exams, taken by state students, paid by federal money to local, state and federal teachers. Make it simple, lets the states and local government be responsible for the quality of education and pass scores in their states and LGA.
Also remember that states earn PAYE tax, Federal does not. Lagos as an example generates N14b a month, 75% of that figures comes from PAYE, Levies and fines. So if water and education is moved to the states, you as a citizen can demand to see your tax money at work from your state governor, LGA chairman, not a faceless senator in a big house in Abuja.
The GDP growth of the Nigerian economy has come not from oil (which generates the bulk of foreign exchange) but from the nonoil sector, which has an 80 % share of the GDP Level. The policy of the government should be to utilise the oil earning to grow the non oil sector by provision of infrastructure and the well being of the citizens, the oil money has been used to pay salaries, meet JV calls of the oil majors, repay foreign debts. Less than 30% is earmarked for capital projects, which are simulative.
The oil sector is simply the federal government the non oil sector the private sector, the federal and state government (any government) cannot create jobs, it can only distribute cash for spending; only the private sector can create jobs. (That’s why the Ugoji awards did not create any economic base but rather increased inflation). To grow GDP we must create in the economy the conditions that will make private investors borrow and invest capital.
But Kalu, you really want to give the governors the education and health budget to spend, are you serious? They will just host seminars and lobby to become VP with the money. Not really, the governors have had a free ride because the Federal government have provided them a good cover. Ask why roads are bad the answer is FERMA, ask why schools are bad the answer is SUPEB (funded by the federal govt), ask why there is not drugs in the hospital, the answer is that Min of Health has not done counterpart funding. Let the Federal government set policy, set up the master plan, then let the states implement and spend to achieve it. A governor and a LGA are easier to get to than a minister in far away Abuja.
It will be tough, but once people start paying taxes and realise the states are responsible they will hold them accountable.
Then we make the parliament a part time job, yes i am serious in the second republic the parliamentarian were not full time allowance collectors, they came in, sat and were paid sitting allowances, now a senator gets N42 a quarter for passing just 4 bills from 2007 till date. By making the lawmakers earn only sitting allowances this nation will save N102billion a year (this is the yearly cost of maintaining the Senators and House of Reps members a year). Then we pass the Freedom of Information bill FOI so no idiot governor can buy a TV for N500k
This is my take, but nothing can work till we eliminate section 14(3) of the constitution, look it up, it’s a big contributing factor to why we are underdeveloped.
This Nigeria remains out problem, we need to fix it.
We can’t pay our bills, we have no savings.
Our bills are what are on the expenditure side of the annual budget, capital and recurrent i.e. the salaries and also the classrooms and hospitals. So this year we projected we will have bills of N5.2 trillion (4.2t in the budget plus N620b supplementary budget) but we are projecting an income of only N3.08t (based on selling 2.3mbpd at $67) hence we have a budget deficit of N1.52 trillion.
We have projected to fund this N1. 52 trillion deficits by borrowing N897b from Nigerians via bond sales borrow another N75b ($500m) from the international Bond market and sell new oil blocks for N132b. Just recently the President has also forwarded a request to borrow $915m from the World Bank to fund the deficit. Note that the Excess Crude account has been decimated, from a high of $20b in 2008 to just over $2b today, so we can go there. It’s also interesting that the federal government will finance the deficit by borrowing and selling, while Lagos state funds 75% of her budget through internally generated personal income taxes, but i digress.
A close look at the budget revenue figures also shows how optimistic and fragile our assumptions are. We are projecting two things, (a) is that we will sell 2.3mbpd (b) oil will sell at $67 a barrel.
For us to sell 2.3mbpd there has to be zero MEND activity, no bombings, no spills of the pipelines nothing, that is a tall order. (In 2009 with the amnesty and total elimination of sabotage, oil output was put at 2.29mbpd) the oil price assumption is also fragile at best, will oil to remain high with all the bad news coming from the Euro Zone and the US. The point is if oil price falls to $60 and production falls to just 2mbpd then we will create another funding gap of N1trillion naira in the budget. Where will we get another N1trillion, print? Too late the CBN has already printed close to N1.5t for the banks and power sector, AMC i opine will suck up a further N3t. so what can we do? Pray? If we cannot fund this deficit, then we cannot pay the police and civil servants, we cannot repair roads and sponsor the Senators (there is good in every problem)
The simple answer is reducing our expenses, not investments our recurrent expenses. we have to cut our budget to fit our oil revenues, not our spending plans,(sorry Honourables) if we will only get N3trillion in revenues, then the budget should be maybe N2.8trillion not N5trillion, there is nothing like Keynes in Africa. We have to view the oil wealth not as a harvest but as a seed, it should not be spent 150% but at least 10% be set aside for a rainy day.
Nigeria spends so much because we are funding a bloated federal structure. We have inconsequential ministries, wasteful states and local governments that exist only in name and paper. The structure of Nigeria is inherently flawed, the Federal government has allocated to itself powers such as the privilege to educate and provide water to the citizens not because it can do so, but rather to corner the revenues required to pay for these services.
First of all we need to remove the stupid policy of federal character in the constitution because it mandates 36 ministries are created for 36 states. Why is this necessary? What if the president wants just 10 ministers? In effect the constitution is mandating a spending plan irrespective of the revenue earned; because no matter what happens we must maintain 36 ministers and their ministries (The US has 50 states and only 15 cabinet secretaries). At this time, and in the future we need flexibility, We cannot sustain 36 ministries and numerous boards, parastatals, commissions and councils etc what does the National Institute for Cultural orientation do? Should the Nigerian National Merit Award be a commission?
This is important when we consider that in Nigerian budgets recurrent expenditures i.e. salaries and allowances are usually more than the budgets for developmental and simulative activities i.e. road and power projects. The recurrent budgets are a direct consequence of the huge federal workforce. The ministry of education for instance no longer exist to educate students, it now exists to pay salaries, I’ll prove it, 83 % of the funding for federal universities from the 2005 to 2009 went to salaries of the workers, direct teaching and laboratory cost plus research only took 4% of the entire budget! So are they really universities? Or federal salaries paying centres? This tallies with what the former minister said that the budget for the ministry, 90 %goes to the Unity Schools, of which 89% went to pay the salaries of the teachers only, nothing left to buy books and reagents for the labs.
In effect we have used our oil money to pay salaries, instead of investing. Sad.
Next, we cut the size of the federal government by transferring some powers to the states and local governments, and converting ministries who do not contribute to the creation or protection of our GDP into agencies and departments. Specifically, transfer Education, Health, Water and Agriculture Police, Works from the Federal to the State and Local Governments list of responsibilities., then let the Federal govt do Defence, Foreign Affairs, Finance, Labour, Judiciary and Commerce.
The Min of Aviation, Communications, Culture, Environment, Housing, Industry, Information, Power and Steel, Science, Solid minerals, Sports, Transport, Women affairs, convert them to parastatals or agencies. For guidance the average contribution of the aviation sector from 1999 to 2008 to the Nigerian GDP from is less than 0.06%, yet it a ministry with 2 ministers, permanent secretaries, state offices, but most importantly budgetary allocations, a waste.
Is it reasonable that we can have a minister in Abuja who will dictate where and how water bore holes will be built? Should water be a federal duty or state and local govt duty? Can the federal minister oversee nomadic education in Funtua and also oversee boy child education in Abiriba, should this not be a duty for the states?
The federalisation of Nigeria has taken responsibility away from those closest to the electorate. Who should we hold responsible for the 10 % pass rate of the NECO exams? States or federal government? We can’t really say, these are federal exams, taken by state students, paid by federal money to local, state and federal teachers. Make it simple, lets the states and local government be responsible for the quality of education and pass scores in their states and LGA.
Also remember that states earn PAYE tax, Federal does not. Lagos as an example generates N14b a month, 75% of that figures comes from PAYE, Levies and fines. So if water and education is moved to the states, you as a citizen can demand to see your tax money at work from your state governor, LGA chairman, not a faceless senator in a big house in Abuja.
The GDP growth of the Nigerian economy has come not from oil (which generates the bulk of foreign exchange) but from the nonoil sector, which has an 80 % share of the GDP Level. The policy of the government should be to utilise the oil earning to grow the non oil sector by provision of infrastructure and the well being of the citizens, the oil money has been used to pay salaries, meet JV calls of the oil majors, repay foreign debts. Less than 30% is earmarked for capital projects, which are simulative.
The oil sector is simply the federal government the non oil sector the private sector, the federal and state government (any government) cannot create jobs, it can only distribute cash for spending; only the private sector can create jobs. (That’s why the Ugoji awards did not create any economic base but rather increased inflation). To grow GDP we must create in the economy the conditions that will make private investors borrow and invest capital.
But Kalu, you really want to give the governors the education and health budget to spend, are you serious? They will just host seminars and lobby to become VP with the money. Not really, the governors have had a free ride because the Federal government have provided them a good cover. Ask why roads are bad the answer is FERMA, ask why schools are bad the answer is SUPEB (funded by the federal govt), ask why there is not drugs in the hospital, the answer is that Min of Health has not done counterpart funding. Let the Federal government set policy, set up the master plan, then let the states implement and spend to achieve it. A governor and a LGA are easier to get to than a minister in far away Abuja.
It will be tough, but once people start paying taxes and realise the states are responsible they will hold them accountable.
Then we make the parliament a part time job, yes i am serious in the second republic the parliamentarian were not full time allowance collectors, they came in, sat and were paid sitting allowances, now a senator gets N42 a quarter for passing just 4 bills from 2007 till date. By making the lawmakers earn only sitting allowances this nation will save N102billion a year (this is the yearly cost of maintaining the Senators and House of Reps members a year). Then we pass the Freedom of Information bill FOI so no idiot governor can buy a TV for N500k
This is my take, but nothing can work till we eliminate section 14(3) of the constitution, look it up, it’s a big contributing factor to why we are underdeveloped.
This Nigeria remains out problem, we need to fix it.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Queen Turai the Magnificent
Queen Turei the Magnificent walked into her presidential library in Tureina. It had been a short drive from the state house where she had just presided over the weekly Executive meeting of the Kingdom of Negeria.
She took a glance at the cashew trees; she recalled planting them 20 years ago, when Negeria was still a republic, it made her smile, but it also stiffened her, it made her remember her motto in life, keep pushing until something happens. KPUSH. That motto has made her the richest and most powerful women in Africa, Queen Turei preferred to be called the richest woman in the World but her handlers knew that one of her daughters who had been the minister of petroleum for 20years and had carved out a state for herself out of Bachi was far richer, but they kept mum.
Queen Turei had always pushed, when she saw her brother in law and father in law enter politics she pushed Maru to get into politics, she silly man wanted to become a chemistry lecturer she chuckled. When unfortunately her Brother in law died in jail, she pushed Maru to take up the family mantle to govern Tureina. Maru absence for medical reasons had enabled her to enter into the world of Negeria governance, and she discovered a dark secret about men. They would do anything for money. Money was important to her, but that someone was willing to forgo future wealth for immediate cash was a lesson she attached t her KPUSH mantra.
She had planned to teach the manta to her sons for them to apply, but suddenly in the dead of night a phone call came in from BOJ, Maru had taken the call he was surprised, then more surprised, then a bit happy. curious she asked him “who was that” “oh he replied “ it was BOJ, he asked me if i wanted to become the president, i told hem i had already gotten a letter of appointment to teach Chemistry in University, i said i would consider it” that was the first time she got a heart attack. She scrambled, called BOJ back and said of course Maru was interested in the job, of course his Doctors had declared him fit, and Maru became President, Just like that.
That Presidency has tested her wits, it had started off well enough, Maru had as usual gone academic with the agenda thing, he had even managed to bring truce to the Neger Delta, and then it all changed, Maru “issue” started again. The Western hospitals said yes come over, but she was worried about their pesky freedom of information ideas, they might give some idiot online paper an interview. So she went to where reporters were not allowed; Saudi Arabia. She had hoped the folks in Abaja would take care of things, but the common folk kept asking for see Maru, to talk to Maru some even asked he write some letter! Did they elect him? What was their business? She simply ignored them.
When she was awaken with news that Lady Pat was now the acting First lady, it made her decision easy. She drew on all the tenets of KPUSH and her knowledge of men, the funds in the appropriations bill she had signed came into use. She brought back Maru for them, abi they want him to come back? Well he is back.
She then moved quickly, she got 3 months to allow Maru rest, she used the courts to change the rules, and Lady Pat was made the Second lady again. She adopted 36 new daughters, and married them off to 36 young men in 36 states and simply sent to names to Owu, he knew how to get them elected as Governors. She then went to the PaDP and asked for an early election, she asked her bankers to give anyone with a title in Abaja $10million each, and by May it was done. Her son-in-law was the candidate for the Presidency, Andoakaa was made his running mate, it was a landslide, the Senators and Honourables, Judges, Press and Army were busy buying houses in Dubai and UK, they did nit interface.
She promptly made her son in law appoint her Senate President, it was really too easy, “Ghana Must Go” flowed and the Constitution was changed, and only Senators and Honourables could contest elections into the Presidency, of course she being the Senate President was first in line, by 2014 she was President and Commander in Chief.
She zoned the Armed Forces and police to the North, Civil service and Judiciary to the West and Commerce and Banking to the East, she was being equitable she opined. She eliminated the federal character principle and appointed her daughters Min of Finance, Petroleum and CBN Governor. She passed a freedom of Information bill hence all newspapers, radio and TV stations were banned, “since freedom is free, why should anybody make profit from it?” To sanitise the banking system she closed the entire banks apart from one, the Turei Trust Bank, she directed all foreign reserves be transferred there, federation units, and customers doing business with Negeria were mandated to open accounts there. “Well its easier for the CBN to inspect one bank, we have killed off bank failures” she said
all new bank notes now bore the image of Queen Turei, as she said this was to only was to ensure it was not faked. she made supreme courts justices a life time appointment, reduced the judges to two and appointed her adopted daughters as the first Supreme court justices, “it was to empower women she said, the UN had mandated it in the MDG”.
By 2022, she sent a resolution to the Parliament to convert Negeria into a Monarchy, As usual the people had shouted, wrote editorials, went on marches, went to court etc she just smiled. The Parliament by voice vote affirmed her request , Turei, became Her Royal Excellency, Field Marshal, Dr, Chief, Eng, Queen Turei the Magnificent, MNI, PSS, Queen of Negeria and West Africa excluding Ghena .
It was now 2030, the federal capital had been moved to Tureina, as it was nearer to Seudi Arebia, she had solved the power problem by banning Air Conditioners s and Deep freezers, “AC are ruining the ozone layer”, she said. She had solved unemployment by hiring everybody into the federal civil service, to get a salary, you than had to swear an oath of allegiance, not to her but to her office ooh! Education was free, as no one went to school anymore, as everyone was guaranteed a job in the civil service. She sometimes wondered why men who taught they were smarter could not manage to solve these “problems”.
But today in the Turei Presidential library, she was on a peacekeeping mission, her daughters were fighting again, these girls were really embarrassing her, first it was about which states they wanted as 15 year wedding anniversary gifts, then it was about who would get to monopoly to import petrol and shut down NNPC, she was tired. One daughter had had asked the mint to put her picture on the other side of the N1,000,000,000 note, another then simply asked them to create a N1,000,000,000, 000 note and put her picture.
She signed as she opened the door to meet with her warring daughters, it was her problem, and she would fix it.
She took a glance at the cashew trees; she recalled planting them 20 years ago, when Negeria was still a republic, it made her smile, but it also stiffened her, it made her remember her motto in life, keep pushing until something happens. KPUSH. That motto has made her the richest and most powerful women in Africa, Queen Turei preferred to be called the richest woman in the World but her handlers knew that one of her daughters who had been the minister of petroleum for 20years and had carved out a state for herself out of Bachi was far richer, but they kept mum.
Queen Turei had always pushed, when she saw her brother in law and father in law enter politics she pushed Maru to get into politics, she silly man wanted to become a chemistry lecturer she chuckled. When unfortunately her Brother in law died in jail, she pushed Maru to take up the family mantle to govern Tureina. Maru absence for medical reasons had enabled her to enter into the world of Negeria governance, and she discovered a dark secret about men. They would do anything for money. Money was important to her, but that someone was willing to forgo future wealth for immediate cash was a lesson she attached t her KPUSH mantra.
She had planned to teach the manta to her sons for them to apply, but suddenly in the dead of night a phone call came in from BOJ, Maru had taken the call he was surprised, then more surprised, then a bit happy. curious she asked him “who was that” “oh he replied “ it was BOJ, he asked me if i wanted to become the president, i told hem i had already gotten a letter of appointment to teach Chemistry in University, i said i would consider it” that was the first time she got a heart attack. She scrambled, called BOJ back and said of course Maru was interested in the job, of course his Doctors had declared him fit, and Maru became President, Just like that.
That Presidency has tested her wits, it had started off well enough, Maru had as usual gone academic with the agenda thing, he had even managed to bring truce to the Neger Delta, and then it all changed, Maru “issue” started again. The Western hospitals said yes come over, but she was worried about their pesky freedom of information ideas, they might give some idiot online paper an interview. So she went to where reporters were not allowed; Saudi Arabia. She had hoped the folks in Abaja would take care of things, but the common folk kept asking for see Maru, to talk to Maru some even asked he write some letter! Did they elect him? What was their business? She simply ignored them.
When she was awaken with news that Lady Pat was now the acting First lady, it made her decision easy. She drew on all the tenets of KPUSH and her knowledge of men, the funds in the appropriations bill she had signed came into use. She brought back Maru for them, abi they want him to come back? Well he is back.
She then moved quickly, she got 3 months to allow Maru rest, she used the courts to change the rules, and Lady Pat was made the Second lady again. She adopted 36 new daughters, and married them off to 36 young men in 36 states and simply sent to names to Owu, he knew how to get them elected as Governors. She then went to the PaDP and asked for an early election, she asked her bankers to give anyone with a title in Abaja $10million each, and by May it was done. Her son-in-law was the candidate for the Presidency, Andoakaa was made his running mate, it was a landslide, the Senators and Honourables, Judges, Press and Army were busy buying houses in Dubai and UK, they did nit interface.
She promptly made her son in law appoint her Senate President, it was really too easy, “Ghana Must Go” flowed and the Constitution was changed, and only Senators and Honourables could contest elections into the Presidency, of course she being the Senate President was first in line, by 2014 she was President and Commander in Chief.
She zoned the Armed Forces and police to the North, Civil service and Judiciary to the West and Commerce and Banking to the East, she was being equitable she opined. She eliminated the federal character principle and appointed her daughters Min of Finance, Petroleum and CBN Governor. She passed a freedom of Information bill hence all newspapers, radio and TV stations were banned, “since freedom is free, why should anybody make profit from it?” To sanitise the banking system she closed the entire banks apart from one, the Turei Trust Bank, she directed all foreign reserves be transferred there, federation units, and customers doing business with Negeria were mandated to open accounts there. “Well its easier for the CBN to inspect one bank, we have killed off bank failures” she said
all new bank notes now bore the image of Queen Turei, as she said this was to only was to ensure it was not faked. she made supreme courts justices a life time appointment, reduced the judges to two and appointed her adopted daughters as the first Supreme court justices, “it was to empower women she said, the UN had mandated it in the MDG”.
By 2022, she sent a resolution to the Parliament to convert Negeria into a Monarchy, As usual the people had shouted, wrote editorials, went on marches, went to court etc she just smiled. The Parliament by voice vote affirmed her request , Turei, became Her Royal Excellency, Field Marshal, Dr, Chief, Eng, Queen Turei the Magnificent, MNI, PSS, Queen of Negeria and West Africa excluding Ghena .
It was now 2030, the federal capital had been moved to Tureina, as it was nearer to Seudi Arebia, she had solved the power problem by banning Air Conditioners s and Deep freezers, “AC are ruining the ozone layer”, she said. She had solved unemployment by hiring everybody into the federal civil service, to get a salary, you than had to swear an oath of allegiance, not to her but to her office ooh! Education was free, as no one went to school anymore, as everyone was guaranteed a job in the civil service. She sometimes wondered why men who taught they were smarter could not manage to solve these “problems”.
But today in the Turei Presidential library, she was on a peacekeeping mission, her daughters were fighting again, these girls were really embarrassing her, first it was about which states they wanted as 15 year wedding anniversary gifts, then it was about who would get to monopoly to import petrol and shut down NNPC, she was tired. One daughter had had asked the mint to put her picture on the other side of the N1,000,000,000 note, another then simply asked them to create a N1,000,000,000, 000 note and put her picture.
She signed as she opened the door to meet with her warring daughters, it was her problem, and she would fix it.
Nigeria's never changing census
How many are we, and why does it matter?
In simple terms, number of local governments in a state, revenues from the federation account, Senate seats, House of reps seats are all shared out according to population figures. If a state has more people, it receives more from the federation account. State population accounts for 26% of the criteria to share in the 31% allocated to states from the joint federation account, others criteria are;
Basic equality of states 45.23%?
Landmass & Terrain 10.70%
Internal revenue effort 8.31%
Education 3%
Health 3%
Rural road and water ways 1.5%
Portable water 1.5%
(population of LGA carries a 37% weighting to share the 15.31% allocated to them)
So how many people there are in a state or local government is very very important, i would call it the most important asset a state of Local government can have in Nigeria.
So how many are we in Nigeria? We can use the Federal govt and British census figures and break this down into groups of states using geography as a basis. Thus we will have Northern states and Southern States. I will attempt to put the figures from 1952 when Nigeria had the first census till 2006 the last one as below;
Table 1.
1. Census in 1963 and 1973 were cancelled
2. Source; NPC Abuja & census news 1992, ISSN1116-666996
3. Allow for figures rounded off.
In summary, the Northern region since 1953 is reported to have an average of 54.1% of the population of Nigeria. Remember this number i.e. 54%.
As a matter of fact, the Northern region has maintained 54.1% average for all census since independence, the Western region (including Lagos) has maintained an average of 18.7% the East 22.7% and the Mid west 4.9% in all census! Let me be clear in 57 years (1953 to 2006) NO region, North or South, East or Midwest has grown its population exponentially, we have all grown at the same pace. Rural to Urban drift has not occurred in Nigeria in 57 years! The relative proportion of the regions has remained the same. That is the population of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun; and Ekiti has grown the same as Ebonyi, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, and Imo. Ditto for the North. I did not say so; the Nigerian Population Commission said so. Lagos with all the Luxury buses bringing Easterners every day has remained at 18.7% while the East where everybody has a relative in Lagos has maintained at 22.7%.
Nigeria’s national growth rate is 65%, the Northern region grew by average 60% from 1963 to 1991, the Midwest region grew by 78%, and Eastern region grew by 60%, but Lagos and the West declined by 63.6% in the same period i.e. 1963 to 1991. Specifically the Western region grew by 26.3% between 1931 and 1963, then grew by 124% between 1953 and 1963, then slowed down by 63.6% from 1963 to 1991. Again i only publish the figures i see.
But back to our question why is population important? Because the population figures are consistent with election results in Nigeria, i explain;
In 1959, the British conducted elections into the Federal House of Representatives. There were 312 seats on offer, the results allocated 174 seats or 55.8% of the seats to the Northern region, 73 seats or 23.4% to the Eastern region and 65 seats or 20.8%. Since 1959, this has been the norm. In the 1979 presidential elections, the Northern region cast 48.2% or votes, the East 22% and West 25.8. In the 1999 elections the Northern region cast 52.5%, East 24.2% and West 18.3%, in the 2003 elections the North cast 52.3%, East 24.6% and west 13.2. Note that the results for 1999 and 2003 are almost exactly similar. Thus it seems that after 4 years of governance, No Nigerian changed his mind in the North and East, the same numbers of votes were cast, no increase, no decrease.
It seems that the census figures and the electoral results are joined at the hip, i.e. they never change. The totals go up and down, but the independent components do not change, they are frozen in time. The census figures have not changed in 57 years; does this mean the election figures will not change in 57 years? (Didn’t a party promise to rule Nigeria for 60 more years?)
I will make no conclusion, my memo simply brings out the facts, my data are from the FGN own published figures; i urge you all to go online and get your own and compare with mine. These data i use are publically available data, simply Google Nigerian census or Nigerian revenue sharing formulae.
Let’s ask ourselves these questions
Are the census figures correct?
Should population determine how much a state should get? More than portable water, roads, health & education, derivation?
What role should population play in national decision making? Should it play any role?
If population brings money, will any state adopt family planning?
If education and health care brings so little money, will any state provide it?
What can we do going forward?
In simple terms, number of local governments in a state, revenues from the federation account, Senate seats, House of reps seats are all shared out according to population figures. If a state has more people, it receives more from the federation account. State population accounts for 26% of the criteria to share in the 31% allocated to states from the joint federation account, others criteria are;
Basic equality of states 45.23%?
Landmass & Terrain 10.70%
Internal revenue effort 8.31%
Education 3%
Health 3%
Rural road and water ways 1.5%
Portable water 1.5%
(population of LGA carries a 37% weighting to share the 15.31% allocated to them)
So how many people there are in a state or local government is very very important, i would call it the most important asset a state of Local government can have in Nigeria.
So how many are we in Nigeria? We can use the Federal govt and British census figures and break this down into groups of states using geography as a basis. Thus we will have Northern states and Southern States. I will attempt to put the figures from 1952 when Nigeria had the first census till 2006 the last one as below;
Table 1.
1. Census in 1963 and 1973 were cancelled
2. Source; NPC Abuja & census news 1992, ISSN1116-666996
3. Allow for figures rounded off.
In summary, the Northern region since 1953 is reported to have an average of 54.1% of the population of Nigeria. Remember this number i.e. 54%.
As a matter of fact, the Northern region has maintained 54.1% average for all census since independence, the Western region (including Lagos) has maintained an average of 18.7% the East 22.7% and the Mid west 4.9% in all census! Let me be clear in 57 years (1953 to 2006) NO region, North or South, East or Midwest has grown its population exponentially, we have all grown at the same pace. Rural to Urban drift has not occurred in Nigeria in 57 years! The relative proportion of the regions has remained the same. That is the population of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun; and Ekiti has grown the same as Ebonyi, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, and Imo. Ditto for the North. I did not say so; the Nigerian Population Commission said so. Lagos with all the Luxury buses bringing Easterners every day has remained at 18.7% while the East where everybody has a relative in Lagos has maintained at 22.7%.
Nigeria’s national growth rate is 65%, the Northern region grew by average 60% from 1963 to 1991, the Midwest region grew by 78%, and Eastern region grew by 60%, but Lagos and the West declined by 63.6% in the same period i.e. 1963 to 1991. Specifically the Western region grew by 26.3% between 1931 and 1963, then grew by 124% between 1953 and 1963, then slowed down by 63.6% from 1963 to 1991. Again i only publish the figures i see.
But back to our question why is population important? Because the population figures are consistent with election results in Nigeria, i explain;
In 1959, the British conducted elections into the Federal House of Representatives. There were 312 seats on offer, the results allocated 174 seats or 55.8% of the seats to the Northern region, 73 seats or 23.4% to the Eastern region and 65 seats or 20.8%. Since 1959, this has been the norm. In the 1979 presidential elections, the Northern region cast 48.2% or votes, the East 22% and West 25.8. In the 1999 elections the Northern region cast 52.5%, East 24.2% and West 18.3%, in the 2003 elections the North cast 52.3%, East 24.6% and west 13.2. Note that the results for 1999 and 2003 are almost exactly similar. Thus it seems that after 4 years of governance, No Nigerian changed his mind in the North and East, the same numbers of votes were cast, no increase, no decrease.
It seems that the census figures and the electoral results are joined at the hip, i.e. they never change. The totals go up and down, but the independent components do not change, they are frozen in time. The census figures have not changed in 57 years; does this mean the election figures will not change in 57 years? (Didn’t a party promise to rule Nigeria for 60 more years?)
I will make no conclusion, my memo simply brings out the facts, my data are from the FGN own published figures; i urge you all to go online and get your own and compare with mine. These data i use are publically available data, simply Google Nigerian census or Nigerian revenue sharing formulae.
Let’s ask ourselves these questions
Are the census figures correct?
Should population determine how much a state should get? More than portable water, roads, health & education, derivation?
What role should population play in national decision making? Should it play any role?
If population brings money, will any state adopt family planning?
If education and health care brings so little money, will any state provide it?
What can we do going forward?
Saturday, February 20, 2010
of schools
Last week, Hon Emmanuel Bello from Adamawa state presented a bill to the House of Representatives to prohibit the children and wards of public officials from attending schools outside Nigeria. Hon Bello point is simple, If YarAdua’s kid was in the University of Katsina, ASUU would not be on strike.
But can forcing the decision makers to sleep in the bed they make improve the bed? If we banned generators would NEPA work? If we banned jeeps, would we have good roads? If all the big men from Anambra had their kids in Anambra and didn’t have police escorts, would we still hear of kidnapping in Anambra? I suspect that this banning could work ooh.
I know of a school in Jos that was founded in 1980, it was a dream; the school was not only free but paid the students. The school had modern laboratories, sports facilities and lodgings. The students were pampered with swimming, equestrian, and map reading lessons. The uniforms, books, excursion, medical care and food was free, the students travelled to Lome to study French, and even air transportation to Jos was provided free of charge! Now this is clearly unbelievable but trust me, the school exists, (now it has fallen somewhat, students now pay fees and there is no free air transport as the planes are rotting away on some tarmac in Lagos.) I have a theory that the promoters of this school, who were “big men” seeing their wards were in this very school, showered all the perks imaginable on it, because they had a vested interest in the school.
On the flip side we saw the senators in Abuja cut the education and health budget to build a 10 lane expressway in Abuja. One of the reasons the senators arguing for the “viament” as it was called was that the Senators spend hours in traffic going to their home states, but this makes sense, they don’t use the school or hospitals but they use the road, so it had to be fixed. Heaven forbid a Senator has to spend hours in his A/c convoy negotiating a two lane expressway.(one senator could not take the punishment anymore and simply bought a plane to fly him home)
There is a clear correlation between the increase in Nigerian kids schooling offshore and the standard of government education in Nigeria, as more UK schools come over to Nigeria to do school fairs, the failure rate in the WASC keeps increasing. The current pass rate in WASC is put at 20% i.e. only 2 in 10 students have 5 credits! The Punch newspapers carried a story that N137billion was spent on tuition in two years for about 50,000 Nigerian students in the UK and US alone , the total education budget for the same period was put at N459billion for almost 100m students in Nigeria do the maths. I could stake my lunch money that no Minister has his kids in a Nigerian federal, state or Local govt school, thats astonishing, It’s like saying no Toyota top Exec drives a Toyota.
It does seem that Hon Bello is clearly unto something.
I know for a fact that if the Ministers had to send their sons to queue for 9 hours by 4am to buy 4 litres of fuel, there would be no fuel scarcity; I also know that if generators were banned, we would be talking of 60,000 mw, not 6,000mw. So it does follow if we banned foreign medical trips, the National Hospital in Abuja would rival John Hopkins, if we banned Jeeps, Lagos to Calaber road would look like a German autobahn, and hence if we banned public officials sending their kids offshore, then University of Markudi will rival Harvard. It’s so simple to fix Nigeria abi?
But you do not need to be grounded in politics in Nigeria to know this bill will not even pass first reading in the House Hon Bello belongs to, it will be killed off like the FOI and Electoral reform bills. And that why it’s so hard to fix Nigeria.
Sign! It’s our problem, we will fix it
But can forcing the decision makers to sleep in the bed they make improve the bed? If we banned generators would NEPA work? If we banned jeeps, would we have good roads? If all the big men from Anambra had their kids in Anambra and didn’t have police escorts, would we still hear of kidnapping in Anambra? I suspect that this banning could work ooh.
I know of a school in Jos that was founded in 1980, it was a dream; the school was not only free but paid the students. The school had modern laboratories, sports facilities and lodgings. The students were pampered with swimming, equestrian, and map reading lessons. The uniforms, books, excursion, medical care and food was free, the students travelled to Lome to study French, and even air transportation to Jos was provided free of charge! Now this is clearly unbelievable but trust me, the school exists, (now it has fallen somewhat, students now pay fees and there is no free air transport as the planes are rotting away on some tarmac in Lagos.) I have a theory that the promoters of this school, who were “big men” seeing their wards were in this very school, showered all the perks imaginable on it, because they had a vested interest in the school.
On the flip side we saw the senators in Abuja cut the education and health budget to build a 10 lane expressway in Abuja. One of the reasons the senators arguing for the “viament” as it was called was that the Senators spend hours in traffic going to their home states, but this makes sense, they don’t use the school or hospitals but they use the road, so it had to be fixed. Heaven forbid a Senator has to spend hours in his A/c convoy negotiating a two lane expressway.(one senator could not take the punishment anymore and simply bought a plane to fly him home)
There is a clear correlation between the increase in Nigerian kids schooling offshore and the standard of government education in Nigeria, as more UK schools come over to Nigeria to do school fairs, the failure rate in the WASC keeps increasing. The current pass rate in WASC is put at 20% i.e. only 2 in 10 students have 5 credits! The Punch newspapers carried a story that N137billion was spent on tuition in two years for about 50,000 Nigerian students in the UK and US alone , the total education budget for the same period was put at N459billion for almost 100m students in Nigeria do the maths. I could stake my lunch money that no Minister has his kids in a Nigerian federal, state or Local govt school, thats astonishing, It’s like saying no Toyota top Exec drives a Toyota.
It does seem that Hon Bello is clearly unto something.
I know for a fact that if the Ministers had to send their sons to queue for 9 hours by 4am to buy 4 litres of fuel, there would be no fuel scarcity; I also know that if generators were banned, we would be talking of 60,000 mw, not 6,000mw. So it does follow if we banned foreign medical trips, the National Hospital in Abuja would rival John Hopkins, if we banned Jeeps, Lagos to Calaber road would look like a German autobahn, and hence if we banned public officials sending their kids offshore, then University of Markudi will rival Harvard. It’s so simple to fix Nigeria abi?
But you do not need to be grounded in politics in Nigeria to know this bill will not even pass first reading in the House Hon Bello belongs to, it will be killed off like the FOI and Electoral reform bills. And that why it’s so hard to fix Nigeria.
Sign! It’s our problem, we will fix it
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