Wednesday, June 24, 2009

of balls and barrels

If a mosquito perched on your left ball (Blokus) what would you do? Would you slap the mosquito hard? Well you will kill the mosquito alright, but your balls might bust, would you leave it? Not likely, the bugger will suck your future children away, so what? Well an option is to first make the mosquito fly away from your left ball (blokus), then smack it in the air, far away from your balls. It’s a no brainer abi?

What if you had a MEND in your oil fields what would you do? Would you slap the MEND hard? Well you will kill the MEND? But your oil output might fall, would you leave MEND alone? Not likely, the bugger will create a state within a state, so what? Well an option is to first make the MEND irrelevant so they lose local support, then you smack them, far away from your oil fields balls. It’s a no brainer abi?
You see if its man to man fight in an open field the Nigerian Army (JTF) will finish off MEND and have time to do a beer or two, but JTF is not fighting an army, it is fighting an insurgency. Mao said an insurgency must avoid direct confrontation with the ruling powers because they will lose, but the insurgency must move like a toad in a swamp, in and out of water, and weaken the enemy to a point where they lose the will to fight. Modern counter insurgency principles are built around “draining the swamp” that feeds the insurgency.

In Malaysia the British starved off the Malay Communist by sequestering the villages into dedicated villages, which were then heavily defended. This strategy deprived the communist of food, information and most importantly local support. In Iraq, General Patreaus -using lessons learned from the NYPD in defeating gang members in New York- inserted US troops inside Iraq neighbors, enclosed the neighbors with walls and just sat there, this allowed the residents to feel confident that the US was there to stay and they turned on Al Qaeda.

After 2 months of JTF action what are the results? Well we are not in Gbaramatu so we don’t know how effective the routing of the militants had been, what we know is this;
1. Falling government oil earnings; a 39.5% drop from last quarter
2. Deficit in governments fiscal (tax) operations, 31.5% drop in preceding quarter
3. Depreciating value of the Naira
4. Expanded FGN debt, N2.5 trillion up 28.7%
5. Fall in commercial bank credit to private sector from (plus) 16.7% to (minus) 2.6%
6. Inflation rate of 13.1% in first quarter compared with 5.8% in corresponding period in 2008
7. Fall in the Nigerian stock market by 36.9% from the preceding quarter
8. Fall in FOREX inflow by 46.9%
9. Fall in oil output from a installed capacity of 3mbpd to almost 1.23mbpd
10. No power (light) in the country, because no gas from the creeks to power the gas turbines.
So who dunnit? One reason only one, a fall in oil output, caused by MEND. Nigeria earns 90% of our foreign earnings from oil, Nigeria is also import dependent and a heavy consumer , we earned $5.72 billion from January to March 2009, impressive abi? but we spent $11.26 billion, that’s why our reserves are now %45 billion from a high of $65 billion plus.
So a MEND reducing how much we can earn from oil is the proverbial mosquito on the balls. We would be fools to discount that MEND has the ability to significantly reduce how much we would earn in the next quarter. Chevron has shut in output, now shell has shut in output also. Even if Iran boils and oil gets to $200 a barrel, Nigeria might see output restricted further. Our brave soldiers nor matter how trained and equipped they may be (with or without unmanned drones) cannot guard every inch of pipeline in the Niger Delta. All it takes is for a MEND guy (or gal) to ride a bicycle to a pipeline into a forest, set a local fuse , and boom, 200,000 barrels are shut in, and the stats above gets worse.

So what can we do?

1. Yar Adua need to do a “Sadat”, and fly into the creeks and visit that area, call the global MDs of Shell, AGIP, ExxonMobil and Chevron to accompany him. Let him go there are tell the people Nigeria wants to “reset” relationship with them, let the MD of Shell and Co with the FGN invoke a “Marshall plan”, let them announce a multi billion offer to cleanup and develop the area, let Julius Berger announce it wants to hire 100,000 ND citizen to build a 8 lane, rail and road network in the creeks, let GE announce plans t build a massive 5,000 power plant in Gbamaratu kingdom employing 2,000 ex militants, let the Army replace the JTF with the Army Corp of Engineers to build jetties and fish ponds, let start to build a gigantic sports facility to host Africa in 2035, lets make the militants and the citizens of the Niger Delta dizzy with imagining how that area will be if they put down the RPG. What a morale booster this will be to the Nigerian troops in the JTF, what a morale booster it will be to the fisherman in the creeks who has not seen a fish since 1970 in his creek. Such a visit will change overnight the tone in the creeks. The symbolism and significance cannot be imagined.
2. Declare the entire Delta a federal zone i.e. Bayelsa Rivers and Delta State become the Delta federal republic (about the size of Florida); allocate 25% of the budget or oil earnings to develop the area, this is not derivation, it’s just an appropriation vote. Drain the swamp of kidnappers and militants, employ them in Julius Berger, Siemens, and Shell, take a census and pay every Nigerian from Delta, Rivers, and Bayelsa a special dividend being shareholders of the nations wealth. Cancel the states let only the local governments remain, that way the representation goes around
3. Set in a plan to return Nigeria to a fiscal federalism. This means that we live out the meaning of a federation, where the federating units have exclusive powers to create wealth, and pay a tax to the central government. This will mean that the Federal government hands over Education and Health to the local governments, the local government will fund health education with their resources and then pay a tax to the federal government. No state and in consequence individual will work if he knows his sweat will be taxed away to Abuja.
4. Pull the Army away from the land, I find it funny that we are using the army when the stolen oil will eventually find its way unto a barge and then t a ship on the high sea. Invest in the Navy; if we stop the barges leaving the creeks to the sea, we stop the bunkering.
5. Equip the police, the courts, and the laws. Let rule of law be a verb not a noun.
Do this all at once, don’t delay, if we can give FIFA a presidential guarantee that we will develop 6 stadia in 6 cities in one month to host a junior World Cup, then we can guarantee the Niger Delta People that we will develop 6 states in 6 months with N6 trillion and create 6 million direct jobs.
Kalu these are radical measures, it will cause the Nigerian government trillions to implement, we would have rewarded militancy and would appear unfair to other parts of Nigeria who depend on federal grants to survive, if I recall only I state (Lagos) generates enough internal revenue to pay salaries and build infrastructure.

Yes it’s a tough choice, but what’s the option, wait till MEND takes output down to 100,000bpd?

It’s our problem, we will fix it

Monday, June 8, 2009

“Liberalizing the possession of guns will make the ordinary citizens more equipped to fight crime” Orji Uzor Kalu

The above statement was by Orji Uzor Kalu the former (believe it or not) Governor of Abia state. He made that statement while advocating for a law to allow all Nigerian carry guns , this he said will stop Kidnapping and the like….ok what’s wrong with that? Heaven they say helps those who help themselves” abi?
Lets stretch Kalu's Argument, if we can allow citizens to carry arms cause of kidnapping surly we can allow citizens buy SUV to get over bad roads, surly we can allow citizens “manufacture” their own “pure” drinking water, surly we can allow citizen set up their own schools, surly we can allow citizens drink Agbo as primary health care………….abi the government cant protect us so he wants us to carry guns.


By last count Abia gets N3billion a month from Abuja, so he got give or take N288billion in 8 years. now if the 2 time governor had invested just 1% of this just (N2.8b) in building a small 1,200kva power plant to provide power to the Barbers, Hairdressers, Tailors, Artisan, Bar owners, Welders, Vulcanisers, does he know how many jobs he would have created? Or better still how many kidnappers he would have given a job?
Had he spent another 1% in rural roads surely the Aba palm oil industry could have gotten palm kernels out of the forests faster and cheaper, more jobs created, less kidnappers abi
had he spent another 1% in free hospitals in the local governments (i.e. N164 million per Local Government) surly people would not have to kidnap to pay hospital bills, you see has he even spent just 10% of what he got in Education, Health, Roads, Power then there would not be any case of Kidnapping in Abia state. Now imagine if all the Governors spent just 10% on education, power and health care…..just imagine.
The Niger Delta militants opened our eyes, the Inspector General of Police told us that kidnappers made $100m between 2006 and 2008 , 2 years N17.5 billon, pure profit , no cost of production (ok a phone) , no taxation. Now Kidnapping has become a business, because the state has failed to provide an alternative. Outside the Niger Delta, the South East now especially Anambra State is the HQ of Kidnapping, Orji Kalu state is a close second, hence you see his point in allowing guns. Guy for the record It’s jobs , not carrying guns that will stop kidnapping.
People like Orji Uzor Kalu are very dangerous, how? Well guy and the rest of the class of 1999-2007 have promoted a theory called “let them carry guns”, or simply “put give us the money, the people can take care of themselves” please explain

You see this “let them have guns theory can be seen in say, we allocate money for Rural Electrification but Elumelu and Co (Alleged) say “let them have candle” we allocate N240 billion for boreholes across the federation but they say “let them drink pure water”. We allocate N300m for health but Iyabo Obansanjo and Co (Alleged) says “let them drink Agbo”. We allocate $billions for Turn Around Maintenance of Nigerian Refineries but a few Nigerian say “let them have fuel lines”
The list is endless FIFA says “host the world cup”, NFA and the Sports Ministry say “let them watch it on DSTV” Yar Adua tell us that he want us to have electoral reforms the parliament says “let them have INEC”
The two richest Nigerians (according to Forbes) both made their wealth on the inefficiency of the government, Dangote makes money on the failure of the government to promote local production of Rice and feed her populace, Otedola make money by inefficiency in NNPC, so Nigeria says “let them eat Abakaliki rice” Dangote say no “let them eat Thai par boiled rice” the government says “let them have NEPA” Otedola says “let them use Zenon Diesel”. (I no dey vex with them ooh! No be them spoil am!)
What of Power i.e. Light, well the government says let them have NEPA but Mikano, Mantrac, Perkins, Jubalia, FG Wilson says “let them use generators” Do you know that Nigerians spent $12.3m (that N339b) in just 2 weeks importing Generators! (Source CBN report FOREX usage form 11 May to 22 May 2009)
Wow! This is so similar to what the queen of France told the masses in France, when they did not have bread, she said “let them eat cake” well sort of, but we put an African twist to ours.

The thing is that the French masses refused to eat cake, but the Nigerian has certainly eaten a lot of cake. We the people of Nigeria have eaten and like the cake the Orji Kalu are feeding us. We have eaten bad roads, no power, no hospital, no schools, and we are still hungry. And its get better, should they allow us carry guns, who do you think will import and sell it? You or them?

It’s our problem, we can fix it
ps
Agbo is that stuff young girls carry about and sell in mostly Western Nigeria. Agbo (so they claim) can cure everything so a cup a day keeps the doctor away.

of Slyvia and Chavez

of “Bayelsa has Oil and Gas, rich soil for oil palm and rice cultivation. We guarantee peace, power and natural resources and favorable operating environment, with first world opportunities. What more do you want? Come and invest in Bayelsa State”.
Gov Timipreye Sylvia at the South South Economic forum held in Tinapa, 27th April 2009

Last week the democratic first world Governor Timipreye Sylvia ordered Conoil Nigeria Limited to immediately stop operations in Bayelsa State, and her staff to vacate the state without further delay!

Please what happened in 2 months? What caused this governor that practically sold his state as a heaven of first world opportunities and operating environment suddenly change to become a Chavez? What was Conoil offense sef? Well the MD of Conoil failed to attend a special meeting the first world governor held with all the oil companies in the state. That’s it? They did not attend a meeting so they should pack out? Yes now! The governor said the meeting was called to discuss ways of addressing mutual challenges with a view to ensuring that oil coys produce at full capacity.

Many things come to mind when one reads this

1. Can anybody ask a Nigerian Citizen to leave a state in Nigeria? Can YarAdua ask a Nigerian citizen to leave Nigeria?
2. Can a state ask a company registered in the Corporate Affairs Commission (Federal) to leave its state i.e. not to operate there? If the state did not register them can they ask them to leave?
3. Conoil operates a franchise business also hence Conoil only supplies the PMS and AGO to the marketers who are Bayelsa indigenes, so are the indigenes to leave the state cause they work for Conoil?
4. Is failure to attend a meeting a ground for the expulsion of a company paying taxes and employing citizens of a state?
The truth is this action exposes the lack of appreciation of the role business play in the development of a state.

I checked my facts Bayelsa receives N9 billion monthly from Abuja, out of this figure only N274m is VAT, Bayelsa is the state with the lowest VAT receipts in Nigeria , they get lower than the poorest state in Nigeria (Jigawa) but that a topic for another day. Bayelsa generates just N1 billion monthly from internally generated Revenue as at January 2008, as at Oct 2007 the state was generating a paltry N250 million a month!. Hence internally generated revenue in Bayelsa is just 11% of total revenues i.e. they only generate N11 of every N100 they spend.

Bearing in mind that Abuja money is dependant on the price of Oil, One would presume that the governor would seek to diversify his resource base. Keep in mind that tax Conoil pays tax which goes to Abuja and come back as 13% Derivation to the state, and also pay Corporate and Local tax and VAT. Corporate tax and VAT go to the Abuja and return, but local taxes especially Pay As You Earn and other levies and dues will stay in the state 100%.

Internationally we see how the Governors and Mayor in the US are lobbying GM to keep their plants open in states they have interest in, why? Cause Jobs are king. we see Lagos developing Badagry, Lekki and even the slums to attract investors, why? Jobs are king, we see the VP in far away as Finland seeking for foreign investors to come to Nigeria why? Jobs are King.

It is a serious breach of protocol and ungentlemanly too not to attend a meeting with your chief executive, in some private companies you can be sacked, but we cannot cut of our nose to spite our face, this action is rash and not well thought out, can’t Conoil be finned, can’t they be made to do more CSR? Ok cant the MD alone be banned? Must the whole company and staff leave also? can Sylvia ask Shell to leave the state cause they did not attend a meeting? Can he?

I am beginning to suspect this Sylvia; he was the same governor that was involved in the abduction of a Lagos based journalist that wrote critical stories about his interests. Gov you are first class, prove it, don’t just say it.

Conoil please apologize to the Governor and the state, Our Gov please take it easy ooh, Na devil cause am.

It’s our problem, we can solve it

Friday, June 5, 2009

of Jobs and Jobbing

What is the best job in the world?

That’s easy, it’s the President of the United States of America, you get $400,000 a year, a private 747 jet, a helicopter that flies you to your lawn, government housing which is also your office, you don’t pay phone bills and get to retire and earn million talking. Hmm but you have to worry about GM, AIG, Guantanamo, assassination etc and you pay for your own food, next!….
Ok what about a Russian Oligarch you get to have a 100 feet yacht, private jets, lots of lovely models to “escort” you everywhere you go and your own private football club hmmm temping but easy come easy go, you can get locked up by Vlad and sent to Siberia, too many bodyguards next!

Ok I have it, how about an INEC resident Electoral commissioner. You get a federal job, you do nothing till the elections, even after the elections you still do nothing as the results will be sent to you from “above” you get “gifts” from the ruling party, nobody can sack you if you “perform” and you generally get police protection etc hmmm very tempting really very tempting…… but I will pass too boring.

Ok Kalu, a footballer with Chelsea, I mean top scorer, secure shirt, $400,000 a week, NIKE sponsor etc etc surly this is the life, yeah but what if you break a leg? next

Ok I give up, you don’t want to be POTUS, you don’t want to be Abramovich, you don’t want to be Ayoka Adebayo, you don’t want to be Kaka who do you want to be?
Well before I answer let me give you the perks and terms of the job I want
1. I will earn N47 million a QUARTER, that’s $1.7 million a year to develop my village true!
2. Basic Salary - 2,026,400.50Hardship Allowance @ 50% of Basic Salary 1 242 122.70 Consistency allowance @ 200% of BS 4 968 509.00Furniture Allowance @ 300% of BS 7 452 736.50Newspaper allowance @ 15% 1 242 122.70.Wardrobe allowance @ 25% 621 061.37Recess Allowance @ 10% 248 424.55Accommodation @ 200% 4 968 509.00utilities @ 30% 828 081.83Domestic Staff @ 75% 1 863 184.12Entertainment @ 30% 828 081.83Personal Assistance @ 25% 621 061.37Vehicle Maintenance Allowance @ 75% 1 863 184.12Leave Allowance @10% 248 424.55
Severance gratuity @ 300% 7 452 736.50 (Once I get fired)
Motor Vehicle Allowance @ 400% of BS 9 936 982.00 (Every Four Years)
(all figures in Naira)

3. Company cars,
4. Housing allowance
5. I also get to travel when I want.
6. I get to bid for contracts,
7. I am required to come to work every day, but if I don’t come nobody fire me

8. Best of all I set my own salary. I get a chance every year to tell my employer how much to pay me

So I challenge you to tell me which job I better than this?

Kalu there is no job like this now; let’s forget the money part, to get this kind of job you will be worked to the bone, just like a Wall Street banker or a corporate lawyer so I still chose Abramovich.

My guy that the thing, I don’t have to do anything in this job, sometimes you just go on TV and rake that u want to probe someone, u then go around the country with the press in tow, u make a lot of noise, so they can “settle” you with a N5.2billion contract and u stay calm, do you know I have a brother in that “business” he says since 2 years ago when he got this job he has only written 5 reports, and four of those reports were for his salary.

Kalu what is this job? It’s a Distinguished Senator of the Federal Republic Of Nigeria. This is the best job in the whole world.
So are you serious that since 2007 the Federal parliament has only passed 5 bills? Just 5? Technical they have passed only 1 called The Certain Political and Judicial Office Holders (Salaries and Allowances etc Amendment Act) in 2008, the other 4 are all Appropriation bills the
1. Appropriation Act 2007
2. Niger Delta Appropriation Act 2008
3. Appropriation Amendment 2008
4. Appropriation Act 2009
As a unit Nigeria has spent N76 billion a year as salaries of the 496 federal lawmakers and they have returned just 5 bills, all covering appropriations and their salaries. So its 2 years, 5 bills, N152 billion sweet!

Kalu, I have just one more question for you, how do I become a senator?

its our problem, we will solve it