Nigeria's never changing census

How many are we, and why does it matter?



In simple terms, number of local governments in a state, revenues from the federation account, Senate seats, House of reps seats are all shared out according to population figures. If a state has more people, it receives more from the federation account. State population accounts for 26% of the criteria to share in the 31% allocated to states from the joint federation account, others criteria are;

Basic equality of states 45.23%?
Landmass & Terrain 10.70%
Internal revenue effort 8.31%
Education 3%
Health 3%
Rural road and water ways 1.5%
Portable water 1.5%
(population of LGA carries a 37% weighting to share the 15.31% allocated to them)

So how many people there are in a state or local government is very very important, i would call it the most important asset a state of Local government can have in Nigeria.

So how many are we in Nigeria? We can use the Federal govt and British census figures and break this down into groups of states using geography as a basis. Thus we will have Northern states and Southern States. I will attempt to put the figures from 1952 when Nigeria had the first census till 2006 the last one as below;

Table 1.


1. Census in 1963 and 1973 were cancelled

2. Source; NPC Abuja & census news 1992, ISSN1116-666996

3. Allow for figures rounded off.

In summary, the Northern region since 1953 is reported to have an average of 54.1% of the population of Nigeria. Remember this number i.e. 54%.

As a matter of fact, the Northern region has maintained 54.1% average for all census since independence, the Western region (including Lagos) has maintained an average of 18.7% the East 22.7% and the Mid west 4.9% in all census! Let me be clear in 57 years (1953 to 2006) NO region, North or South, East or Midwest has grown its population exponentially, we have all grown at the same pace. Rural to Urban drift has not occurred in Nigeria in 57 years! The relative proportion of the regions has remained the same. That is the population of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun; and Ekiti has grown the same as Ebonyi, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, and Imo. Ditto for the North. I did not say so; the Nigerian Population Commission said so. Lagos with all the Luxury buses bringing Easterners every day has remained at 18.7% while the East where everybody has a relative in Lagos has maintained at 22.7%.



Nigeria’s national growth rate is 65%, the Northern region grew by average 60% from 1963 to 1991, the Midwest region grew by 78%, and Eastern region grew by 60%, but Lagos and the West declined by 63.6% in the same period i.e. 1963 to 1991. Specifically the Western region grew by 26.3% between 1931 and 1963, then grew by 124% between 1953 and 1963, then slowed down by 63.6% from 1963 to 1991. Again i only publish the figures i see.

But back to our question why is population important? Because the population figures are consistent with election results in Nigeria, i explain;



In 1959, the British conducted elections into the Federal House of Representatives. There were 312 seats on offer, the results allocated 174 seats or 55.8% of the seats to the Northern region, 73 seats or 23.4% to the Eastern region and 65 seats or 20.8%. Since 1959, this has been the norm. In the 1979 presidential elections, the Northern region cast 48.2% or votes, the East 22% and West 25.8. In the 1999 elections the Northern region cast 52.5%, East 24.2% and West 18.3%, in the 2003 elections the North cast 52.3%, East 24.6% and west 13.2. Note that the results for 1999 and 2003 are almost exactly similar. Thus it seems that after 4 years of governance, No Nigerian changed his mind in the North and East, the same numbers of votes were cast, no increase, no decrease.



It seems that the census figures and the electoral results are joined at the hip, i.e. they never change. The totals go up and down, but the independent components do not change, they are frozen in time. The census figures have not changed in 57 years; does this mean the election figures will not change in 57 years? (Didn’t a party promise to rule Nigeria for 60 more years?)

I will make no conclusion, my memo simply brings out the facts, my data are from the FGN own published figures; i urge you all to go online and get your own and compare with mine. These data i use are publically available data, simply Google Nigerian census or Nigerian revenue sharing formulae.



Let’s ask ourselves these questions



Are the census figures correct?
Should population determine how much a state should get? More than portable water, roads, health & education, derivation?
What role should population play in national decision making? Should it play any role?
If population brings money, will any state adopt family planning?
If education and health care brings so little money, will any state provide it?
What can we do going forward?