Nigeria is going broke!
We can’t pay our bills, we have no savings.
Our bills are what are on the expenditure side of the annual budget, capital and recurrent i.e. the salaries and also the classrooms and hospitals. So this year we projected we will have bills of N5.2 trillion (4.2t in the budget plus N620b supplementary budget) but we are projecting an income of only N3.08t (based on selling 2.3mbpd at $67) hence we have a budget deficit of N1.52 trillion.
We have projected to fund this N1. 52 trillion deficits by borrowing N897b from Nigerians via bond sales borrow another N75b ($500m) from the international Bond market and sell new oil blocks for N132b. Just recently the President has also forwarded a request to borrow $915m from the World Bank to fund the deficit. Note that the Excess Crude account has been decimated, from a high of $20b in 2008 to just over $2b today, so we can go there. It’s also interesting that the federal government will finance the deficit by borrowing and selling, while Lagos state funds 75% of her budget through internally generated personal income taxes, but i digress.
A close look at the budget revenue figures also shows how optimistic and fragile our assumptions are. We are projecting two things, (a) is that we will sell 2.3mbpd (b) oil will sell at $67 a barrel.
For us to sell 2.3mbpd there has to be zero MEND activity, no bombings, no spills of the pipelines nothing, that is a tall order. (In 2009 with the amnesty and total elimination of sabotage, oil output was put at 2.29mbpd) the oil price assumption is also fragile at best, will oil to remain high with all the bad news coming from the Euro Zone and the US. The point is if oil price falls to $60 and production falls to just 2mbpd then we will create another funding gap of N1trillion naira in the budget. Where will we get another N1trillion, print? Too late the CBN has already printed close to N1.5t for the banks and power sector, AMC i opine will suck up a further N3t. so what can we do? Pray? If we cannot fund this deficit, then we cannot pay the police and civil servants, we cannot repair roads and sponsor the Senators (there is good in every problem)
The simple answer is reducing our expenses, not investments our recurrent expenses. we have to cut our budget to fit our oil revenues, not our spending plans,(sorry Honourables) if we will only get N3trillion in revenues, then the budget should be maybe N2.8trillion not N5trillion, there is nothing like Keynes in Africa. We have to view the oil wealth not as a harvest but as a seed, it should not be spent 150% but at least 10% be set aside for a rainy day.
Nigeria spends so much because we are funding a bloated federal structure. We have inconsequential ministries, wasteful states and local governments that exist only in name and paper. The structure of Nigeria is inherently flawed, the Federal government has allocated to itself powers such as the privilege to educate and provide water to the citizens not because it can do so, but rather to corner the revenues required to pay for these services.
First of all we need to remove the stupid policy of federal character in the constitution because it mandates 36 ministries are created for 36 states. Why is this necessary? What if the president wants just 10 ministers? In effect the constitution is mandating a spending plan irrespective of the revenue earned; because no matter what happens we must maintain 36 ministers and their ministries (The US has 50 states and only 15 cabinet secretaries). At this time, and in the future we need flexibility, We cannot sustain 36 ministries and numerous boards, parastatals, commissions and councils etc what does the National Institute for Cultural orientation do? Should the Nigerian National Merit Award be a commission?
This is important when we consider that in Nigerian budgets recurrent expenditures i.e. salaries and allowances are usually more than the budgets for developmental and simulative activities i.e. road and power projects. The recurrent budgets are a direct consequence of the huge federal workforce. The ministry of education for instance no longer exist to educate students, it now exists to pay salaries, I’ll prove it, 83 % of the funding for federal universities from the 2005 to 2009 went to salaries of the workers, direct teaching and laboratory cost plus research only took 4% of the entire budget! So are they really universities? Or federal salaries paying centres? This tallies with what the former minister said that the budget for the ministry, 90 %goes to the Unity Schools, of which 89% went to pay the salaries of the teachers only, nothing left to buy books and reagents for the labs.
In effect we have used our oil money to pay salaries, instead of investing. Sad.
Next, we cut the size of the federal government by transferring some powers to the states and local governments, and converting ministries who do not contribute to the creation or protection of our GDP into agencies and departments. Specifically, transfer Education, Health, Water and Agriculture Police, Works from the Federal to the State and Local Governments list of responsibilities., then let the Federal govt do Defence, Foreign Affairs, Finance, Labour, Judiciary and Commerce.
The Min of Aviation, Communications, Culture, Environment, Housing, Industry, Information, Power and Steel, Science, Solid minerals, Sports, Transport, Women affairs, convert them to parastatals or agencies. For guidance the average contribution of the aviation sector from 1999 to 2008 to the Nigerian GDP from is less than 0.06%, yet it a ministry with 2 ministers, permanent secretaries, state offices, but most importantly budgetary allocations, a waste.
Is it reasonable that we can have a minister in Abuja who will dictate where and how water bore holes will be built? Should water be a federal duty or state and local govt duty? Can the federal minister oversee nomadic education in Funtua and also oversee boy child education in Abiriba, should this not be a duty for the states?
The federalisation of Nigeria has taken responsibility away from those closest to the electorate. Who should we hold responsible for the 10 % pass rate of the NECO exams? States or federal government? We can’t really say, these are federal exams, taken by state students, paid by federal money to local, state and federal teachers. Make it simple, lets the states and local government be responsible for the quality of education and pass scores in their states and LGA.
Also remember that states earn PAYE tax, Federal does not. Lagos as an example generates N14b a month, 75% of that figures comes from PAYE, Levies and fines. So if water and education is moved to the states, you as a citizen can demand to see your tax money at work from your state governor, LGA chairman, not a faceless senator in a big house in Abuja.
The GDP growth of the Nigerian economy has come not from oil (which generates the bulk of foreign exchange) but from the nonoil sector, which has an 80 % share of the GDP Level. The policy of the government should be to utilise the oil earning to grow the non oil sector by provision of infrastructure and the well being of the citizens, the oil money has been used to pay salaries, meet JV calls of the oil majors, repay foreign debts. Less than 30% is earmarked for capital projects, which are simulative.
The oil sector is simply the federal government the non oil sector the private sector, the federal and state government (any government) cannot create jobs, it can only distribute cash for spending; only the private sector can create jobs. (That’s why the Ugoji awards did not create any economic base but rather increased inflation). To grow GDP we must create in the economy the conditions that will make private investors borrow and invest capital.
But Kalu, you really want to give the governors the education and health budget to spend, are you serious? They will just host seminars and lobby to become VP with the money. Not really, the governors have had a free ride because the Federal government have provided them a good cover. Ask why roads are bad the answer is FERMA, ask why schools are bad the answer is SUPEB (funded by the federal govt), ask why there is not drugs in the hospital, the answer is that Min of Health has not done counterpart funding. Let the Federal government set policy, set up the master plan, then let the states implement and spend to achieve it. A governor and a LGA are easier to get to than a minister in far away Abuja.
It will be tough, but once people start paying taxes and realise the states are responsible they will hold them accountable.
Then we make the parliament a part time job, yes i am serious in the second republic the parliamentarian were not full time allowance collectors, they came in, sat and were paid sitting allowances, now a senator gets N42 a quarter for passing just 4 bills from 2007 till date. By making the lawmakers earn only sitting allowances this nation will save N102billion a year (this is the yearly cost of maintaining the Senators and House of Reps members a year). Then we pass the Freedom of Information bill FOI so no idiot governor can buy a TV for N500k
This is my take, but nothing can work till we eliminate section 14(3) of the constitution, look it up, it’s a big contributing factor to why we are underdeveloped.
This Nigeria remains out problem, we need to fix it.
Saturday, June 26, 2010
Friday, March 19, 2010
Queen Turai the Magnificent
Queen Turei the Magnificent walked into her presidential library in Tureina. It had been a short drive from the state house where she had just presided over the weekly Executive meeting of the Kingdom of Negeria.
She took a glance at the cashew trees; she recalled planting them 20 years ago, when Negeria was still a republic, it made her smile, but it also stiffened her, it made her remember her motto in life, keep pushing until something happens. KPUSH. That motto has made her the richest and most powerful women in Africa, Queen Turei preferred to be called the richest woman in the World but her handlers knew that one of her daughters who had been the minister of petroleum for 20years and had carved out a state for herself out of Bachi was far richer, but they kept mum.
Queen Turei had always pushed, when she saw her brother in law and father in law enter politics she pushed Maru to get into politics, she silly man wanted to become a chemistry lecturer she chuckled. When unfortunately her Brother in law died in jail, she pushed Maru to take up the family mantle to govern Tureina. Maru absence for medical reasons had enabled her to enter into the world of Negeria governance, and she discovered a dark secret about men. They would do anything for money. Money was important to her, but that someone was willing to forgo future wealth for immediate cash was a lesson she attached t her KPUSH mantra.
She had planned to teach the manta to her sons for them to apply, but suddenly in the dead of night a phone call came in from BOJ, Maru had taken the call he was surprised, then more surprised, then a bit happy. curious she asked him “who was that” “oh he replied “ it was BOJ, he asked me if i wanted to become the president, i told hem i had already gotten a letter of appointment to teach Chemistry in University, i said i would consider it” that was the first time she got a heart attack. She scrambled, called BOJ back and said of course Maru was interested in the job, of course his Doctors had declared him fit, and Maru became President, Just like that.
That Presidency has tested her wits, it had started off well enough, Maru had as usual gone academic with the agenda thing, he had even managed to bring truce to the Neger Delta, and then it all changed, Maru “issue” started again. The Western hospitals said yes come over, but she was worried about their pesky freedom of information ideas, they might give some idiot online paper an interview. So she went to where reporters were not allowed; Saudi Arabia. She had hoped the folks in Abaja would take care of things, but the common folk kept asking for see Maru, to talk to Maru some even asked he write some letter! Did they elect him? What was their business? She simply ignored them.
When she was awaken with news that Lady Pat was now the acting First lady, it made her decision easy. She drew on all the tenets of KPUSH and her knowledge of men, the funds in the appropriations bill she had signed came into use. She brought back Maru for them, abi they want him to come back? Well he is back.
She then moved quickly, she got 3 months to allow Maru rest, she used the courts to change the rules, and Lady Pat was made the Second lady again. She adopted 36 new daughters, and married them off to 36 young men in 36 states and simply sent to names to Owu, he knew how to get them elected as Governors. She then went to the PaDP and asked for an early election, she asked her bankers to give anyone with a title in Abaja $10million each, and by May it was done. Her son-in-law was the candidate for the Presidency, Andoakaa was made his running mate, it was a landslide, the Senators and Honourables, Judges, Press and Army were busy buying houses in Dubai and UK, they did nit interface.
She promptly made her son in law appoint her Senate President, it was really too easy, “Ghana Must Go” flowed and the Constitution was changed, and only Senators and Honourables could contest elections into the Presidency, of course she being the Senate President was first in line, by 2014 she was President and Commander in Chief.
She zoned the Armed Forces and police to the North, Civil service and Judiciary to the West and Commerce and Banking to the East, she was being equitable she opined. She eliminated the federal character principle and appointed her daughters Min of Finance, Petroleum and CBN Governor. She passed a freedom of Information bill hence all newspapers, radio and TV stations were banned, “since freedom is free, why should anybody make profit from it?” To sanitise the banking system she closed the entire banks apart from one, the Turei Trust Bank, she directed all foreign reserves be transferred there, federation units, and customers doing business with Negeria were mandated to open accounts there. “Well its easier for the CBN to inspect one bank, we have killed off bank failures” she said
all new bank notes now bore the image of Queen Turei, as she said this was to only was to ensure it was not faked. she made supreme courts justices a life time appointment, reduced the judges to two and appointed her adopted daughters as the first Supreme court justices, “it was to empower women she said, the UN had mandated it in the MDG”.
By 2022, she sent a resolution to the Parliament to convert Negeria into a Monarchy, As usual the people had shouted, wrote editorials, went on marches, went to court etc she just smiled. The Parliament by voice vote affirmed her request , Turei, became Her Royal Excellency, Field Marshal, Dr, Chief, Eng, Queen Turei the Magnificent, MNI, PSS, Queen of Negeria and West Africa excluding Ghena .
It was now 2030, the federal capital had been moved to Tureina, as it was nearer to Seudi Arebia, she had solved the power problem by banning Air Conditioners s and Deep freezers, “AC are ruining the ozone layer”, she said. She had solved unemployment by hiring everybody into the federal civil service, to get a salary, you than had to swear an oath of allegiance, not to her but to her office ooh! Education was free, as no one went to school anymore, as everyone was guaranteed a job in the civil service. She sometimes wondered why men who taught they were smarter could not manage to solve these “problems”.
But today in the Turei Presidential library, she was on a peacekeeping mission, her daughters were fighting again, these girls were really embarrassing her, first it was about which states they wanted as 15 year wedding anniversary gifts, then it was about who would get to monopoly to import petrol and shut down NNPC, she was tired. One daughter had had asked the mint to put her picture on the other side of the N1,000,000,000 note, another then simply asked them to create a N1,000,000,000, 000 note and put her picture.
She signed as she opened the door to meet with her warring daughters, it was her problem, and she would fix it.
She took a glance at the cashew trees; she recalled planting them 20 years ago, when Negeria was still a republic, it made her smile, but it also stiffened her, it made her remember her motto in life, keep pushing until something happens. KPUSH. That motto has made her the richest and most powerful women in Africa, Queen Turei preferred to be called the richest woman in the World but her handlers knew that one of her daughters who had been the minister of petroleum for 20years and had carved out a state for herself out of Bachi was far richer, but they kept mum.
Queen Turei had always pushed, when she saw her brother in law and father in law enter politics she pushed Maru to get into politics, she silly man wanted to become a chemistry lecturer she chuckled. When unfortunately her Brother in law died in jail, she pushed Maru to take up the family mantle to govern Tureina. Maru absence for medical reasons had enabled her to enter into the world of Negeria governance, and she discovered a dark secret about men. They would do anything for money. Money was important to her, but that someone was willing to forgo future wealth for immediate cash was a lesson she attached t her KPUSH mantra.
She had planned to teach the manta to her sons for them to apply, but suddenly in the dead of night a phone call came in from BOJ, Maru had taken the call he was surprised, then more surprised, then a bit happy. curious she asked him “who was that” “oh he replied “ it was BOJ, he asked me if i wanted to become the president, i told hem i had already gotten a letter of appointment to teach Chemistry in University, i said i would consider it” that was the first time she got a heart attack. She scrambled, called BOJ back and said of course Maru was interested in the job, of course his Doctors had declared him fit, and Maru became President, Just like that.
That Presidency has tested her wits, it had started off well enough, Maru had as usual gone academic with the agenda thing, he had even managed to bring truce to the Neger Delta, and then it all changed, Maru “issue” started again. The Western hospitals said yes come over, but she was worried about their pesky freedom of information ideas, they might give some idiot online paper an interview. So she went to where reporters were not allowed; Saudi Arabia. She had hoped the folks in Abaja would take care of things, but the common folk kept asking for see Maru, to talk to Maru some even asked he write some letter! Did they elect him? What was their business? She simply ignored them.
When she was awaken with news that Lady Pat was now the acting First lady, it made her decision easy. She drew on all the tenets of KPUSH and her knowledge of men, the funds in the appropriations bill she had signed came into use. She brought back Maru for them, abi they want him to come back? Well he is back.
She then moved quickly, she got 3 months to allow Maru rest, she used the courts to change the rules, and Lady Pat was made the Second lady again. She adopted 36 new daughters, and married them off to 36 young men in 36 states and simply sent to names to Owu, he knew how to get them elected as Governors. She then went to the PaDP and asked for an early election, she asked her bankers to give anyone with a title in Abaja $10million each, and by May it was done. Her son-in-law was the candidate for the Presidency, Andoakaa was made his running mate, it was a landslide, the Senators and Honourables, Judges, Press and Army were busy buying houses in Dubai and UK, they did nit interface.
She promptly made her son in law appoint her Senate President, it was really too easy, “Ghana Must Go” flowed and the Constitution was changed, and only Senators and Honourables could contest elections into the Presidency, of course she being the Senate President was first in line, by 2014 she was President and Commander in Chief.
She zoned the Armed Forces and police to the North, Civil service and Judiciary to the West and Commerce and Banking to the East, she was being equitable she opined. She eliminated the federal character principle and appointed her daughters Min of Finance, Petroleum and CBN Governor. She passed a freedom of Information bill hence all newspapers, radio and TV stations were banned, “since freedom is free, why should anybody make profit from it?” To sanitise the banking system she closed the entire banks apart from one, the Turei Trust Bank, she directed all foreign reserves be transferred there, federation units, and customers doing business with Negeria were mandated to open accounts there. “Well its easier for the CBN to inspect one bank, we have killed off bank failures” she said
all new bank notes now bore the image of Queen Turei, as she said this was to only was to ensure it was not faked. she made supreme courts justices a life time appointment, reduced the judges to two and appointed her adopted daughters as the first Supreme court justices, “it was to empower women she said, the UN had mandated it in the MDG”.
By 2022, she sent a resolution to the Parliament to convert Negeria into a Monarchy, As usual the people had shouted, wrote editorials, went on marches, went to court etc she just smiled. The Parliament by voice vote affirmed her request , Turei, became Her Royal Excellency, Field Marshal, Dr, Chief, Eng, Queen Turei the Magnificent, MNI, PSS, Queen of Negeria and West Africa excluding Ghena .
It was now 2030, the federal capital had been moved to Tureina, as it was nearer to Seudi Arebia, she had solved the power problem by banning Air Conditioners s and Deep freezers, “AC are ruining the ozone layer”, she said. She had solved unemployment by hiring everybody into the federal civil service, to get a salary, you than had to swear an oath of allegiance, not to her but to her office ooh! Education was free, as no one went to school anymore, as everyone was guaranteed a job in the civil service. She sometimes wondered why men who taught they were smarter could not manage to solve these “problems”.
But today in the Turei Presidential library, she was on a peacekeeping mission, her daughters were fighting again, these girls were really embarrassing her, first it was about which states they wanted as 15 year wedding anniversary gifts, then it was about who would get to monopoly to import petrol and shut down NNPC, she was tired. One daughter had had asked the mint to put her picture on the other side of the N1,000,000,000 note, another then simply asked them to create a N1,000,000,000, 000 note and put her picture.
She signed as she opened the door to meet with her warring daughters, it was her problem, and she would fix it.
Nigeria's never changing census
How many are we, and why does it matter?
In simple terms, number of local governments in a state, revenues from the federation account, Senate seats, House of reps seats are all shared out according to population figures. If a state has more people, it receives more from the federation account. State population accounts for 26% of the criteria to share in the 31% allocated to states from the joint federation account, others criteria are;
Basic equality of states 45.23%?
Landmass & Terrain 10.70%
Internal revenue effort 8.31%
Education 3%
Health 3%
Rural road and water ways 1.5%
Portable water 1.5%
(population of LGA carries a 37% weighting to share the 15.31% allocated to them)
So how many people there are in a state or local government is very very important, i would call it the most important asset a state of Local government can have in Nigeria.
So how many are we in Nigeria? We can use the Federal govt and British census figures and break this down into groups of states using geography as a basis. Thus we will have Northern states and Southern States. I will attempt to put the figures from 1952 when Nigeria had the first census till 2006 the last one as below;
Table 1.
1. Census in 1963 and 1973 were cancelled
2. Source; NPC Abuja & census news 1992, ISSN1116-666996
3. Allow for figures rounded off.
In summary, the Northern region since 1953 is reported to have an average of 54.1% of the population of Nigeria. Remember this number i.e. 54%.
As a matter of fact, the Northern region has maintained 54.1% average for all census since independence, the Western region (including Lagos) has maintained an average of 18.7% the East 22.7% and the Mid west 4.9% in all census! Let me be clear in 57 years (1953 to 2006) NO region, North or South, East or Midwest has grown its population exponentially, we have all grown at the same pace. Rural to Urban drift has not occurred in Nigeria in 57 years! The relative proportion of the regions has remained the same. That is the population of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun; and Ekiti has grown the same as Ebonyi, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, and Imo. Ditto for the North. I did not say so; the Nigerian Population Commission said so. Lagos with all the Luxury buses bringing Easterners every day has remained at 18.7% while the East where everybody has a relative in Lagos has maintained at 22.7%.
Nigeria’s national growth rate is 65%, the Northern region grew by average 60% from 1963 to 1991, the Midwest region grew by 78%, and Eastern region grew by 60%, but Lagos and the West declined by 63.6% in the same period i.e. 1963 to 1991. Specifically the Western region grew by 26.3% between 1931 and 1963, then grew by 124% between 1953 and 1963, then slowed down by 63.6% from 1963 to 1991. Again i only publish the figures i see.
But back to our question why is population important? Because the population figures are consistent with election results in Nigeria, i explain;
In 1959, the British conducted elections into the Federal House of Representatives. There were 312 seats on offer, the results allocated 174 seats or 55.8% of the seats to the Northern region, 73 seats or 23.4% to the Eastern region and 65 seats or 20.8%. Since 1959, this has been the norm. In the 1979 presidential elections, the Northern region cast 48.2% or votes, the East 22% and West 25.8. In the 1999 elections the Northern region cast 52.5%, East 24.2% and West 18.3%, in the 2003 elections the North cast 52.3%, East 24.6% and west 13.2. Note that the results for 1999 and 2003 are almost exactly similar. Thus it seems that after 4 years of governance, No Nigerian changed his mind in the North and East, the same numbers of votes were cast, no increase, no decrease.
It seems that the census figures and the electoral results are joined at the hip, i.e. they never change. The totals go up and down, but the independent components do not change, they are frozen in time. The census figures have not changed in 57 years; does this mean the election figures will not change in 57 years? (Didn’t a party promise to rule Nigeria for 60 more years?)
I will make no conclusion, my memo simply brings out the facts, my data are from the FGN own published figures; i urge you all to go online and get your own and compare with mine. These data i use are publically available data, simply Google Nigerian census or Nigerian revenue sharing formulae.
Let’s ask ourselves these questions
Are the census figures correct?
Should population determine how much a state should get? More than portable water, roads, health & education, derivation?
What role should population play in national decision making? Should it play any role?
If population brings money, will any state adopt family planning?
If education and health care brings so little money, will any state provide it?
What can we do going forward?
In simple terms, number of local governments in a state, revenues from the federation account, Senate seats, House of reps seats are all shared out according to population figures. If a state has more people, it receives more from the federation account. State population accounts for 26% of the criteria to share in the 31% allocated to states from the joint federation account, others criteria are;
Basic equality of states 45.23%?
Landmass & Terrain 10.70%
Internal revenue effort 8.31%
Education 3%
Health 3%
Rural road and water ways 1.5%
Portable water 1.5%
(population of LGA carries a 37% weighting to share the 15.31% allocated to them)
So how many people there are in a state or local government is very very important, i would call it the most important asset a state of Local government can have in Nigeria.
So how many are we in Nigeria? We can use the Federal govt and British census figures and break this down into groups of states using geography as a basis. Thus we will have Northern states and Southern States. I will attempt to put the figures from 1952 when Nigeria had the first census till 2006 the last one as below;
Table 1.
1. Census in 1963 and 1973 were cancelled
2. Source; NPC Abuja & census news 1992, ISSN1116-666996
3. Allow for figures rounded off.
In summary, the Northern region since 1953 is reported to have an average of 54.1% of the population of Nigeria. Remember this number i.e. 54%.
As a matter of fact, the Northern region has maintained 54.1% average for all census since independence, the Western region (including Lagos) has maintained an average of 18.7% the East 22.7% and the Mid west 4.9% in all census! Let me be clear in 57 years (1953 to 2006) NO region, North or South, East or Midwest has grown its population exponentially, we have all grown at the same pace. Rural to Urban drift has not occurred in Nigeria in 57 years! The relative proportion of the regions has remained the same. That is the population of Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, Osun; and Ekiti has grown the same as Ebonyi, Abia, Enugu, Anambra, and Imo. Ditto for the North. I did not say so; the Nigerian Population Commission said so. Lagos with all the Luxury buses bringing Easterners every day has remained at 18.7% while the East where everybody has a relative in Lagos has maintained at 22.7%.
Nigeria’s national growth rate is 65%, the Northern region grew by average 60% from 1963 to 1991, the Midwest region grew by 78%, and Eastern region grew by 60%, but Lagos and the West declined by 63.6% in the same period i.e. 1963 to 1991. Specifically the Western region grew by 26.3% between 1931 and 1963, then grew by 124% between 1953 and 1963, then slowed down by 63.6% from 1963 to 1991. Again i only publish the figures i see.
But back to our question why is population important? Because the population figures are consistent with election results in Nigeria, i explain;
In 1959, the British conducted elections into the Federal House of Representatives. There were 312 seats on offer, the results allocated 174 seats or 55.8% of the seats to the Northern region, 73 seats or 23.4% to the Eastern region and 65 seats or 20.8%. Since 1959, this has been the norm. In the 1979 presidential elections, the Northern region cast 48.2% or votes, the East 22% and West 25.8. In the 1999 elections the Northern region cast 52.5%, East 24.2% and West 18.3%, in the 2003 elections the North cast 52.3%, East 24.6% and west 13.2. Note that the results for 1999 and 2003 are almost exactly similar. Thus it seems that after 4 years of governance, No Nigerian changed his mind in the North and East, the same numbers of votes were cast, no increase, no decrease.
It seems that the census figures and the electoral results are joined at the hip, i.e. they never change. The totals go up and down, but the independent components do not change, they are frozen in time. The census figures have not changed in 57 years; does this mean the election figures will not change in 57 years? (Didn’t a party promise to rule Nigeria for 60 more years?)
I will make no conclusion, my memo simply brings out the facts, my data are from the FGN own published figures; i urge you all to go online and get your own and compare with mine. These data i use are publically available data, simply Google Nigerian census or Nigerian revenue sharing formulae.
Let’s ask ourselves these questions
Are the census figures correct?
Should population determine how much a state should get? More than portable water, roads, health & education, derivation?
What role should population play in national decision making? Should it play any role?
If population brings money, will any state adopt family planning?
If education and health care brings so little money, will any state provide it?
What can we do going forward?
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